Fidelity Digital Assets says the supply of Bitcoin (BTC) held by long-term investors has climbed to an all-time high, a metric research analyst Zack Wainwright views as one of the clearest indicators of investor conviction.

In a Fidelity Digital Assets research post, the firm said long-term holder data appear consistent with several on-chain indicators that are moving toward levels historically associated with previous Bitcoin market-cycle bottoms.

Why Fidelity Is Monitoring Long-Term Holders

Fidelity said nearly 15 million BTC have remained unmoved for at least 155 days, placing them in the long-term holder category. The threshold is a common on-chain way to separate older, less frequently spent coins from short-term supply, though it measures coin inactivity rather than directly identifying investor motives.

The firm described the buildup as a signal of conviction among investors who have continued to hold their coins despite weaker prices. Long-term holder supply is closely watched because sustained accumulation can show that a larger share of Bitcoin is not being actively moved, while distribution from this cohort has often coincided with stronger risk appetite in prior cycles.

That supply has historically risen during bear markets and declined during bull markets. According to Fidelity, the long-term holder supply reached a record on July 5, 2026, while Bitcoin prices remained under pressure.

Nearly 40% of this holder group is currently sitting on an unrealized loss. Even so, Wainwright wrote that most long-term holders have maintained their exposure.

Bitcoin is trading roughly 50% below its October 2025 high of more than $126,000. Wainwright compared that drawdown with earlier Bitcoin bear markets, which saw declines of 70%, 80%, and even 90%, and said the shallower decline can be read as a sign of market maturation.

“A variety of on-chain metrics are approaching levels historically associated with bitcoin’s market cycle bottoms. Whether these signals ultimately mark a turning point remains to be seen, but the long-term holder data appears consistent with that sentiment as well,” Wainwright said.

Benjamin Cowen, a member of BeInCrypto’s Market Intelligence experts council, has also pointed to a fourth-quarter bottoming window as his base case. His seasonal analysis suggests a potential low near $44,000.

“The bear-market framework remains intact and the focus shifts from confirming the markdown to watching for the low,” Cowen wrote.

Wainwright reached a similar unresolved conclusion. Fidelity’s data indicate that conviction among long-term holders remains firm, but the firm has not stated whether the current bear market has entered its final stage. A future shift in long-term holder supply would be one signal analysts could compare with price action and other on-chain measures, rather than relying on the metric in isolation.

August will provide another test for Bitcoin. The month was negative in all three prior midterm election years, with losses ranging from 15% to 18%.