Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $65,000 on Monday, about 4% higher than Friday, while AI-linked technology stocks came under pressure. Nvidia fell 4.8%, but gains or stability in Apple, Microsoft and Google helped keep the Nasdaq roughly flat. The backdrop left cryptocurrency traders focused on this week’s Federal Reserve decision and upcoming inflation data, because rate expectations can affect dollar liquidity, Treasury yields and demand for risk assets including crypto.

Ethereum also strengthened, reaching its highest level in nearly two months, while the ETH-BTC ratio rose to a three-month high. Tom Lee described that move as constructive for broader risk appetite. LMAX strategist Joel Kruger said Bitcoin’s resilience supports the case for a marginal decoupling from traditional risk assets, but added that BTC would need to break above $67,300 to confirm a new range breakout. That level remains a key focus in Bitcoin market coverage.

Nansen market strategist Nicolai Sondergaard said the rebound lacks conviction and could fade if spot demand does not return. On-chain data shows roughly 9,000 BTC left exchanges over the past week. However, derivatives open-interest data indicates that Bitcoin futures exposure declined during the price recovery, pointing to reduced risk rather than new bullish leverage. Order-book readings also tilted net sell, reinforcing the view that the market remains range-bound without a strong marginal buyer.

Sondergaard’s base case is for a correction toward $52,000 to $58,000 unless exchange stablecoin inflows resume, spot Bitcoin ETF buying becomes persistent and long-term-holder loss selling stops. Stablecoin inflows are commonly watched as a proxy for deployable crypto-market liquidity, while spot ETF flows show whether regulated investment products are adding sustained demand. Under that framework, the current move is viewed as positioning rather than confirmation of a reversal from a bear-market structure.

Macro event risk is unusually concentrated this week, with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England all scheduled to announce policy decisions. Bitcoin hovered around $65,000 after trading in a weekend range of less than 2%, even as crude oil remained above $100 per barrel. CME FedWatch pricing showed a 36.3% probability of a July rate increase and an 80% chance of tightening by September, putting attention on Kevin Warsh’s guidance regarding inflation and energy costs.

Prediction-market odds placed the probability of a Bank of Japan hold at 98%, though an unexpected Japanese rate hike could revive carry-trade unwinding. The Bank of England is also expected to keep rates high, limiting the prospect of near-term liquidity relief.

Derivatives positioning ahead of the policy decisions is tilted toward upside exposure. Deribit exchange data shows roughly $5 billion of Bitcoin call open interest concentrated at the $70,000 and $72,000 strikes, representing about 18% of the venue’s $28 billion total options book. The broader put-call ratio for Bitcoin options declined from 0.76 in late June to 0.52 by July 24, meaning bullish calls outnumber bearish puts by nearly two to one.

That options skew suggests institutional traders are positioned for a potential short squeeze if the Fed does not deliver a hawkish surprise. Under the same positioning, the $70,000 to $72,000 range would stand as the next major liquidity target.

Near-term hedging activity shows traders are still maintaining caution. Deribit order flow indicates protective put buying is concentrated mainly around $62,000 to $63,000, with market participants treating that area as an institutional demand zone before the Fed and BOJ announcements. If Warsh emphasizes persistent energy-driven inflation and signals additional tightening, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could rise, potentially triggering another round of crypto deleveraging.

In that scenario, the $61,800 to $63,100 support band would likely absorb the first wave of bids, according to the source analysis. A hawkish surprise would also pressure the altcoin market, where thinner order books often amplify downside moves during risk-off periods.

The remaining catalyst calendar is also crowded, with U.S. macroeconomic releases and large-cap technology earnings arriving around the Fed decision. Core personal consumption expenditure data and second-quarter GDP are due July 30, followed by earnings results from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. On July 31, roughly $13 billion to $14 billion of Bitcoin and Ether options are set to expire, adding pin risk and the potential for gamma-driven volatility as dealers and traders adjust hedges around heavily populated strike prices.

Traders will also monitor whether spot Bitcoin ETF flows turn consistently positive and whether long-term holders slow their distribution. Until those conditions align, the market structure appears more like a high-stakes positioning reset than confirmation of a trend shift toward a new all-time high, according to the source.

As of 02:34 UTC, COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rated Bitcoin’s $63,021 support at 84/100, driven by Fibo 0.214, S1 and POC confluence. The $66,449 resistance level scored 69/100 based on BB Upper, R2, Donchian Upper and Swing High inputs. A nearer overhead cap at $64,178 carried a 68/100 score from Ichimoku Kijun, EMA 20, ATR Upper and EMA 50.

Derivatives aggregate data showed perpetual funding at 0.0021%, open interest near $12.45 billion and a long-short account ratio of 1.89, indicating crowded bullish positioning against what COINOTAG described as a bearish trend backdrop. With Fear and Greed at 29 and MACD confirming downside momentum, the source said sentiment remains fearful. COINOTAG said its read is bearish while price remains capped below $64,178, and that a decisive break below $63,021 would open a path toward $60,972.

COINOTAG stated that it does not provide financial advisory services. The content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve high risk.