Bitcoin is entering the final days of July under pressure from changing US macroeconomic expectations, with traders focused on two near-term catalysts: the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and new inflation data that could reshape rate expectations.

At the same time, market participants are assessing whether Bitcoin’s traditional links with broader risk assets are re-emerging or weakening. That question has become more relevant as equities show signs of strain, US bond yields remain elevated and oil prices react to geopolitical developments.

The coming days could determine whether Bitcoin’s relatively tight trading range develops into a decisive breakout or gives way to another pullback. On-chain data adds another layer to the setup, with CryptoQuant reporting that BTC inflows from whales to Binance have cooled materially since mid-June.

Fed and inflation risks return to the center of crypto markets

The immediate driver for risk assets remains the US interest-rate outlook. Attention is focused on the Federal Open Market Committee decision scheduled for Wednesday, July 29, chaired by Kevin Warsh. The FOMC decision is central for markets because it sets the policy-rate framework that influences dollar liquidity, Treasury yields and risk appetite. Expectations for additional tightening have remained volatile, as geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns keep the possibility of further rate hikes in view.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets assign about a 31% probability to a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. The odds of an increase in September are higher, at around 50%.

Those expectations have shifted. Earlier Monday, oil prices fell about 8% after developments involving the United States and Iran paused strikes, according to the article’s reporting. The change was reflected in Fed pricing, with rate-hike odds moving from 37.4% to 33.7%.

Traders are also watching signals from the bond market. Mosaic Asset Company noted in its “The Market Mosaic” newsletter that the 30-year Treasury yield is testing a breakout level. The firm referred to a move in May, when the 30-year yield briefly rose above the 5% resistance area that had held since late 2023 before reversing.

A stronger move at the long end of the Treasury curve can still affect broader financial conditions, even if long-term borrowing plays a smaller direct role in government funding than it once did. For crypto markets, the relevance lies in how higher yields can influence risk appetite and discount-rate expectations across asset classes.

June PCE report may shape rate expectations

Inflation data is the second major focus for the week. On Thursday, markets will turn to the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, after the prior month’s reading was described as a three-year high of 4.1% year over year.

The report matters for crypto because traders can quickly reprice expectations for Federal Reserve policy once the inflation path becomes clearer. PCE is closely followed because it is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, making it especially relevant when markets are debating whether policy needs to stay restrictive. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to publish the June PCE figures, as referenced in the article.

IMEN, in an X post cited by the report, predicted that June PCE inflation would come in moderately below May, forecasting a 3.7% year-over-year increase.

Such a move would help explain why markets have been sensitive to inflation data. The article notes that June’s PCE release coincided with Bitcoin falling to macro lows around $58,000, illustrating how inflation surprises can quickly affect risk sentiment.

Bitcoin’s equity correlation appears weak, but shocks could restore it

Another major theme in the report is Bitcoin’s apparently weak correlation with large US equity benchmarks on longer timeframes. TradingView data cited in the article suggests the daily correlation between BTC/USD and the S&P 500, using a 20-week lookback window, is “practically absent” and at levels not seen since March.

Against the Nasdaq Composite, the reported correlation coefficient is around 0.11, a level last observed in mid-February.

That suggests Bitcoin may be trading more on crypto-specific and macro policy drivers than as a direct expression of equity beta. However, the report cautions that negative macroeconomic or geopolitical developments could still pull correlations back into focus, particularly if markets are repricing discount rates.

Equities are not providing an uncomplicated tailwind. US corporate earnings have reportedly continued to exceed expectations, but the article points to historically elevated valuations as a reason rallies could have difficulty absorbing additional shocks.

The report also notes that several major technology stocks saw significant drawdowns in the previous week. Losses among the “Magnificent 7” totaled about 5.3% through Friday, following earlier sell-offs tied to $GOOGL and $ TSLA .

At the same time, the Kobeissi Letter, cited in the article, argued that margins and earnings beats remain strong across the S&P 500 so far, and that AI is supporting earnings growth. The tension for markets is that solid earnings may reduce immediate pressure, while higher rates can still limit valuation multiples and weaken market breadth.

CryptoQuant data shows Binance whale inflows have declined

Crypto-specific positioning is also under scrutiny. CryptoQuant’s analysis, quoted in the article, focuses on BTC transfer flows to Binance. The firm reports that whale inflows to Binance have fallen by as much as 44% since June 12, while retail inflows have declined by 22%.

In the same blog post referenced by the article, contributor Amr Taha wrote that retail inflows are roughly twice whale inflows, creating a gap of $3.9 billion. The interpretation offered is that the composition of transfers has changed, with retail participants currently more active than whales in sending BTC to exchanges.

Exchange inflows can indicate potential sell-side readiness, though they do not automatically mean immediate selling will occur. Inflow data is therefore most useful when read alongside price action, liquidity conditions and subsequent withdrawals, rather than as a standalone signal. Taha described the FOMC meeting as a “major macro catalyst” that could test whether the divergence between retail and whale behavior persists or begins to converge.

The report also points to signs of active redistribution at Binance, citing single-day withdrawals of more than 9,000 BTC last week, as previously covered by Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin tests long-term technical levels

On the market chart, Bitcoin’s near-term price action remains range-bound. After the Sunday weekly close, the article says BTC reached a local high of $65,680 on Bitstamp, but it remains locked in a familiar test of the 50-month exponential moving average trend line.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital is cited as warning that sell-side pressure appears to be building around this resistance area. Rekt Capital’s view, as quoted, is that if seller volume dominates while Bitcoin is held at resistance, a rejection becomes more likely.

The analysis also refers to the 200-week simple moving average, describing price as “sandwiched” between the 200-week SMA and the 50-month EMA. That setup, according to the report, creates a situation in which continued compression could eventually force an expansion in volatility.

For traders and longer-term observers, the immediate questions center on whether macro data and the Fed decision reinforce current risk pricing or trigger a sharper repricing. If PCE data and post-FOMC guidance support a higher-for-longer rate path, Bitcoin’s exchange-flow shifts and compression near resistance could become more important. If inflation cools meaningfully, the market could regain room to move out of its current “boring” range.