ASX Tipped to Open Slightly Lower After Mixed Wall Street Session
Key Takeaways
- •Wall Street finished mixed overnight, with the Dow rising to a record high as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined.
- •The S&P/ASX 200 ended the previous session at a 52-week high after gaining 0.90% to 9,227.80.
- •The NT EPA has begun prosecution against the Inpex-operated Ichthys LNG project over alleged under-reporting of benzene and toluene emissions from 2019 to 2024.
- •Wood Mackenzie said the metals and mining sector has largely contained the impact of Middle East disruption, with the expected aluminium deficit revised sharply lower.
- •Several ASX-listed companies released exploration updates, including drilling results, a silver-grade increase from historic core, a copper-silver discovery, new drilling at Chalkos, and nickel-copper targets at Red Flag.
At The Bell — The ASX is forecast to open slightly lower this morning after Wall Street delivered a mixed session overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at a record high of 54,349, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% to 7,724 and the Nasdaq fell 0.8% to 26,363.
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The Dow was supported by a range of strong earnings reports, with robust profits underpinning market gains. On the other hand, upbeat reports about the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were offset by concerns surrounding AI reporting results.
A modest decline at the open would follow the S&P/ASX 200’s move to a 52-week high yesterday, when it gained 82.00 points, or 0.90%, to finish at 9,227.80.
Away from the markets, the Northern Territory’s Environmental Protection Agency (NT EPA) has commenced prosecution against the Inpex-operated Ichthys LNG project.
Under its licence, Ichthys LNG is required to annually report total emissions to air, in tonnes, to the NT EPA.
In October 2025, Ichthys LNG informed the NT EPA of significant under-reporting of emissions from the Ichthys LNG facility.
The NT EPA’s charges relate to failure to comply with a condition of the licence by under-reporting benzene and toluene emissions between 2019 and 2024.
The investigation that led to the decision to prosecute is part of a broader set of regulatory responses aimed at addressing Inpex’s under-reporting and wider management of hydrocarbon activities in Darwin Harbour, including the NT EPA’s announcement last week recommending stronger licence terms and conditions for LNG facilities to ensure human health risks from air emissions are adequately addressed.
Meanwhile, international resources research specialist Wood Mackenzie’s mid-year review found that the metals sector has largely weathered the Middle East shock.
The company said the most striking result from the review was how contained the damage to metals and mining has been.
“The clearest evidence sits in aluminium. At the height of the conflict, the disruption was expected to generate a supply deficit of between 2.5 and 3.0 million tonnes. The revised expectation is approximately 900,000 tonnes. Approximately 32% of global direct reduced iron production was also affected, though this remains a small share of overall global steel output,” said Peter Schmitz, director, Global Markets Research, Wood Mackenzie.
“The sector has so far absorbed a significant shock with more composure than most expected.
“The concern now is what the numbers do not yet fully show: inventories depleting, cost pressures building slowly, investment decisions deferred, and demand reorienting away from China. A 900 thousand tonne aluminium deficit and slight copper surplus are hardly comfortable figures. They are just not as uncomfortable as they might have been.”
On the company news front, Chilwa Minerals (ASX:CHW) reported that drilling has hit shallow mineralisation at the Mpyupyu West prospect; Black Bear Minerals (ASX:BKB) said it has identified increasing silver grade from historic core at the Shafter project in Texas; Somerset Minerals (ASX:SMM) confirmed a new high-grade copper-silver discovery at Talisker; Kaoko Metals (ASX:KAO) has started drilling at Chalkos; and Panther Metals (ASX:PNT) has defined multiple nickel-copper targets at Red Flag.
In forex, the Australian dollar is buying US$0.7056.
In commodities, all quoted in US dollars, iron ore is up 0.22% to $93.91 per tonne, Brent crude is up 9.86% to $79.400, gold is trading at $4247.40 per ounce, and US natgas futures are down 1.91% to 2.6699 USD/MMBtu.
That’s HotCopper’s Market Open, I’m Colin Sandell-Hay — happy trading.
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