XRP has fallen to a chart level that one analyst described as the most important area in its current market structure. The token is trading near $1.10 after correcting from a December peak above $3.00. According to the analysis, the current zone is close to the 50% midpoint of XRP’s recent trading range, a level that also marked a major cycle bottom during the 2021–2023 period.

The move has drawn attention from technical traders focused on XRP’s weekly chart. The argument is based on whether the current structure can repeat a prior pattern: in the previous cycle, XRP fell to the midpoint of its range, formed a bottom, and later staged a multi-month recovery. If the level fails to hold, the same analysis suggests the token could face a deeper retracement. For readers following technical setups, the focus is less on a single intraday price and more on whether weekly closes confirm support or rejection around the marked area.

Analyst Compares XRP’s 2021–2023 and 2024–2026 Structures

The analyst behind @CoinvoTrading posted a weekly XRPUSD chart comparing two market cycles. In the 2021–2023 structure, XRP declined to the 50% midpoint between its range high and low before establishing a bottom. That bottom came before a recovery that lasted several months and eventually led to a breakout.

The analyst applied the same framework to XRP’s 2024–2026 range. XRP previously rallied to a new high near $3.40 before moving lower. The price is now slightly below the 50% midpoint of that range, which the analyst placed around the $1.20 area. In the post, the analyst described that zone as a high-probability structural support level.

$XRP HOLDERS: WE'VE REACHED THE MOST IMPORTANT LEVEL… From 2021-2023: the bottom happened at 50% of the range. 2024-2026: XRP just reached 50% of the range. XRP doesn't need to become the next bank transaction layer to perform. It just needs attention. This is it. pic.twitter.com/ePwwA2oKbJ — Coinvo Trading (@CoinvoTrading) July 25, 2026

Source post: https://x.com/CoinvoTrading/status/2080986434043891914?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The post argued that XRP does not require a new fundamental catalyst to move higher. Instead, it pointed to historical attention and positioning around major technical levels as factors that have previously coincided with large price swings. That framing places the setup within market-structure analysis rather than a valuation argument, meaning the thesis depends on observed price behavior around the range midpoint.

What the 50% Range Level Represents

The 50% level is the midpoint between the high and low of a defined price range. It is separate from Fibonacci retracement levels, although the two can sometimes appear near similar areas on a chart. Traders often monitor these midpoint zones because they can mark areas where the balance between supply and demand changes.

On the weekly timeframe, the 2021–2023 XRP bottom formed at the 50% level of that cycle’s range. The token then recovered over several months. The current setup shows XRP approaching a similar relative depth from its 2024 high.

The chart also shows higher lows in the broader structure after the 2022–2023 bottom. According to the bullish interpretation, that formation remains constructive if the 50% level holds as support. Under that scenario, a successful defense of the zone could leave room for a move back toward the previous high near $3.40.

Because midpoint levels are derived from a selected range, their relevance depends on the range used and whether enough market participants recognize the same area. A temporary move below the level can differ from a confirmed breakdown if the weekly candle later closes back above it.

XRP’s Short-Term Price Structure

On the 4-hour chart, XRP is trading around $1.10 after an extended correction. A sharp decline from $1.27 has shifted into sideways consolidation in recent weeks. Buyers have defended the $1.09–$1.10 area, creating a series of higher lows.

The Ultimate Oscillator is at 51.6 and has moved back above 50. The reading indicates improving momentum in the framework used by the source analysis. The Stochastic RSI has also moved strongly higher from oversold conditions. Neither indicator is described as overbought, leaving the chart with room for additional upside under that technical view.

Near-term resistance is identified at $1.12–$1.13, followed by $1.15–$1.16, based on recent swing highs. A move above $1.16 would invalidate the current series of lower highs. The larger breakout area is identified at $1.18–$1.20, where the analysis said confirmation of bullish continuation would appear.

Immediate support remains at $1.09–$1.10, with stronger demand cited near $1.06–$1.07. A decline below $1.02 would shift momentum back toward bears and expose the $1.00 level, according to the same technical setup.

Higher-Timeframe Scenarios

The weekly chart thesis presents a bullish scenario if the 50% level acts as support, as it did in the prior cycle. In that case, XRP could attempt a larger higher-timeframe bounce. The source analysis argued that attention around similar technical levels has historically been enough to support major price movement.

Upside levels cited in the analysis include prior swing highs and then the $3.40 cycle high. The weekly timeframe points to a possible recovery path over several months or multiple years if the structure remains intact.

The bearish case depends on sustained weekly closes below the marked 50% zone. Such a breakdown would weaken the comparison with the earlier cycle and could open the way for a deeper retracement. The analysis also noted that broader market conditions, Bitcoin correlation, and liquidity risk could affect whether the pattern remains valid.

On the 4-hour chart, the source described the setup as moderately bullish, with a 6.5/10 bias. It said XRP would need to move above $1.15–$1.16 to confirm a trend shift. Without that breakout, rallies may continue to encounter selling pressure near resistance.

The source also noted that no one can predict XRP’s 2026 price with certainty, as performance will depend on adoption, regulation, institutional demand, and overall cryptocurrency market conditions. It made the same point for 2030, saying XRP’s future price will depend on market conditions, utility, adoption, and broader demand for cryptocurrencies. The article added that a $100 XRP price would require much wider adoption, stronger demand, and favorable market conditions, and that there is no guarantee XRP will reach that level.