XRP offered traders few surprises over the past week, moving in a tight range before returning close to its opening level. The muted performance, however, may not continue if several market and regulatory factors begin to shift.

Bitcoin remains near an important resistance area, Ripple faces another week of regulatory uncertainty, and XRP has begun forming an ascending trendline. Together, those factors could influence whether XRP moves above $1.20 or falls back toward $1.00 in the coming week.

XRP opened the week near $1.09 and then slipped to a weekly low of around $1.08. The token later recovered alongside several major cryptocurrencies, rising to approximately $1.16.

That rebound did not hold. XRP declined again and returned to roughly $1.09, leaving it almost unchanged from its level at the start of the week.

The price action highlighted 2 key levels. Buyers continued to defend the area near $1.08, while XRP struggled to stay above resistance at $1.15. A decisive move beyond that range could shape the token's next direction.

Bitcoin, the CLARITY Act, and ETF Flows Remain Key Factors for XRP

Several market and regulatory developments could affect XRP during the coming week. Bitcoin's direction remains one of the most important variables because BTC often drives liquidity conditions across the broader crypto market.

Bitcoin recently failed to break resistance at $66,000 and moved back toward $64,000. A further decline below $60,000 could pressure XRP and bring the $1.00 support area back into focus.

A sideways Bitcoin market could have a different effect. When BTC trades within a narrow range, capital sometimes rotates into major altcoins. Under those conditions, XRP could have more room to recover even without a strong Bitcoin rally.

Regulatory developments may be even more significant because XRP remains highly sensitive to policy news in the United States. That sensitivity is rooted in the SEC's December 2020 lawsuit against Ripple, which alleged that XRP sales constituted unregistered securities offerings. Although Judge Analisa Torres ruled in July 2023 that XRP itself is not a security on secondary markets, the case cemented XRP's unusually tight linkage to regulatory interpretation in a way that few other major tokens share.

The CLARITY Act would classify XRP as a digital commodity and provide clearer legal protections. For Ripple, whose business centers on cross-border payment settlement using XRP, a definitive commodity designation would resolve the security-versus-commodity question that has shadowed the token since the SEC's enforcement action and has shaped enterprise partnerships and exchange listings for years.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously said the bill was on the “1 yard line” before the August Senate recess. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has since indicated that the proposal will probably miss that window.

The bill does not need to pass this week to affect XRP's price. Updates about a possible delay, renewed negotiations, or another Senate disagreement could still trigger large price movements.

Confidence that the legislation will pass this year has declined to about 42% on Polymarket. That lower probability has coincided with XRP consolidating near $1.10.

A partisan dispute involving ethics provisions connected to President Donald Trump remains another obstacle. New comments from lawmakers including Chuck Schumer or Cynthia Lummis could alter expectations during the week.

Institutional demand is another important factor. Spot XRP ETFs have tied the token more closely to Wall Street capital, making daily fund flows a significant market signal. The approval of these ETFs marked a further step in XRP's integration into traditional financial infrastructure, giving regulated investors exposure without direct token custody.

Whale accumulation remained strong earlier in the summer, but recent spot ETF outflows have added pressure on XRP. Upcoming institutional purchase data could indicate whether demand is returning or whether weakness is continuing.

XRP Tests Support Along an Ascending Trendline

XRP's chart shows an ascending trendline beneath the latest price action. The token has begun using the upper part of that pattern as support, creating a possible base for another recovery attempt.

If XRP continues to hold above the trendline, the price could return toward $1.20. Stronger buying pressure could then produce a new short-term high between $1.20 and $1.30.

The trendline remains central to this setup. A clear move below it would weaken the bullish structure and could send XRP toward $1.008.

Further selling below $1.008 would expose the next major support level near $0.90. That lower target may become more likely if Bitcoin falls below $60,000 or if regulatory concerns intensify.

Current chart levels therefore create a clear divide. Support above the ascending trendline would favor another recovery attempt, while a breakdown would open the way toward deeper support.

XRP Has Stayed Between $1.08 and $1.15 for 6 Weeks

The weekly XRP chart offers another view of the current structure. XRP has traded mostly sideways over the past 6 weeks, with most major moves taking place between $1.08 and $1.15.

The token attempted to break above $1.15 this week, but the move lost strength and XRP returned to approximately $1.09.

A successful move above $1.15 during the coming week would strengthen the bullish case. XRP could then target $1.20 before testing the upper price area near $1.30.

Continued rejection at $1.15 would keep the sideways structure intact. XRP could remain between $1.08 and $1.15 until Bitcoin, ETF flows, or regulatory news provides a stronger catalyst.

A weekly break below $1.08 would create a more bearish setup. That outcome could send XRP toward $1.00 before opening the possibility of another move toward $0.90.

Weekly Indicators Still Lean Bearish for XRP

XRP's weekly indicators remain mostly bearish. The readings show weak momentum, meaning the token still needs stronger demand before a sustained recovery becomes more convincing.

The RSI reading of 34.005 places XRP close to oversold territory, although it has not produced a confirmed recovery signal. Buyers would need to push the RSI higher before momentum improves.

The MACD remains negative at minus 0.223. That reading indicates that bearish pressure still controls the broader weekly trend.

The Ultimate Oscillator stands at 37.794 and also carries a sell reading. The indicator combines several periods to measure buying and selling pressure, and its current level supports a cautious outlook.

These indicators do not guarantee another decline. However, all 3 currently favor the bearish side and help explain why XRP needs a firm breakout above $1.15.

Three Scenarios for XRP in the Coming Week

Bullish XRP Price Scenario

XRP could hold the ascending trendline and reclaim the $1.15 resistance level. A confirmed breakout above that point may carry the price beyond $1.20 before opening a possible move toward $1.30.

This scenario would become stronger if Bitcoin holds above $64,000, XRP ETF flows improve, or positive updates emerge around the CLARITY Act.

Neutral XRP Price Scenario

XRP could remain trapped between $1.08 and $1.15. Continued Bitcoin consolidation and limited regulatory progress may keep the token inside its 6-week range.

Repeated moves between support and resistance would leave traders waiting for a confirmed breakout. Under this scenario, XRP may spend another week near $1.10.

Bearish XRP Price Scenario

XRP could break below the ascending trendline and lose the $1.08 support level. The first major downside target would appear near $1.008 before attention shifts toward $0.90.

Bitcoin weakness below $60,000, additional ETF outflows, or negative legislative updates could support this outcome.

XRP and ETF Considerations

Choosing between holding raw XRP or an XRP ETF depends on preferences related to account type, custody control, and fee structure. Key differences include tax-advantaged retirement access through ETFs compared with direct ledger utility and zero management fees when holding raw tokens. Spot XRP ETFs, including those offered by Bitwise and Canary Capital, trade on traditional U.S. brokerages.

If the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passes, consensus financial analyst targets project that XRP could initially re-rate to $1.60 to $2.20, with the potential to move into the $5.00 to $10.00 range over the following months.