Follow-up: the kiwi falls as the unemployment rate rises ahead of the RBNZ's September decision. Gold rises for a third day as hopes for a Strait of Hormuz deal ease inflation fears, with prices holding above US$4,100.

US, Iran and Oman near interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. China RatingDog PMI for July 2026: 50.4, versus 53.7 expected.

More: Bank of Japan minutes show the board debated mounting price risks despite the June rate hike. US officials are reviewing an air-traffic safety incident involving a military helicopter carrying Trump.

New Zealand commodity prices posted their biggest monthly fall since 2022 on a dairy slide. The PBOC set the USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7889, compared with an estimate of 6.7480.

Japan's services PMI showed growth slowing in July as selling prices remained near record highs. Fed's Schmid said tighter policy is needed as inflation remains too high.

Situational Awareness backers included Silicon Valley elite before AI bets soured. Bank of Japan June meeting minutes showed a 7-1 vote to raise rates to 1.0% amid inflation risk.

Iran rejected the US claim that there is an open southern route through the Strait of Hormuz. Japan real wages rose for a sixth straight month, supporting the case for a future BoJ rate hike.

Australia's services PMI hit a six-month high of 53.6 as new orders returned. New Zealand's unemployment rate jumped to 5.6%, versus 5.4% expected and 5.3% prior.

ICYMI: the Bank of Korea is set to resume gold buying after 13 years, though the scale is not expected to be large.

An Israeli official said Trump wants an Iran deal 'at any cost', according to a report. US Treasury Secretary Bessent was also reported to be talking about the yen and the BoJ.

Oil update: Iran and Oman were said to have agreed on the broad outlines of a Strait reopening deal. Oil recap: oil settled around 5% lower as Iran talks raised hopes for Hormuz reopening.

Oil: a private inventory survey showed a headline crude oil build versus an expected draw.

Stocks surged to records as Wall Street scrambled to explain the rally after the fact. The S&P and Nasdaq both closed at new record highs.

AMD beat on second-quarter earnings and revenue and guided third-quarter revenue above estimates. SpaceX posted US$7.8 billion in revenue in its debut earnings release, beating estimates on Starlink growth.

Booking Holdings shares jumped after hours as Americans continued to travel.

Key points

Iran and Oman reported broad agreement on the mechanics of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran managing inbound traffic and Oman handling outbound shipping plus a service fee, before later reports said no deal had been finalised.

Iran was also weighing a voluntary fund that would have European states contribute to the cost of maintaining the strait.

A senior Israeli official said Trump wants an Iran deal at any cost, according to Al Arabiya.

Saudi Arabia reportedly struck Yemen's capital, Sanaa.

Axios later reported that the US, Iran and Oman are nearing an interim deal targeting a Wednesday announcement, with a 60-day arrangement giving Iran greater control over strait traffic than before the war and no tolls initially.

Trump told Fox News that talks with Iran are going well and that the strait will open soon, adding that the 'heavy blow' has not yet come.

Oil eased and gold surged back above US$4,130 as lower energy-price risk reduced inflation and Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations.

The New Zealand dollar fell after the unemployment rate hit an 11-year high, even though other parts of the report were less weak.

ANZ's NZ World Commodity Price Index fell 3.9% in July, its biggest monthly decline since November 2022, though it was still up 0.5% on the year.

The yen strengthened after a garbled Bessent message about the BoJ, while data showing Japan's real wages rose for a sixth straight month and BoJ minutes supportive of further hikes also helped cap USD/JPY.

China's RatingDog services PMI fell to 50.4 in July from 54.1, well below the 53.7 expected and the weakest reading since September 2024.

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said tighter policy is needed because inflation remains too high, and added that AI-related investment is contributing to price pressures.

The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at a fresh 41-month high for the yuan.

SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of US$7.8 billion, up 92% from a year earlier and above estimates, in its first results since June's IPO, with a narrower-than-forecast loss in the AI segment.

AMD beat second-quarter EPS and revenue expectations and guided third-quarter revenue above consensus.

Detail

Diplomatic developments around the Strait of Hormuz dominated the session, with the narrative evolving throughout the day. Early reports suggested Iran and Oman had largely agreed on the mechanics of reopening the strait, with Iran set to manage inbound traffic and Oman handling outbound shipping alongside a proposed service fee. Later reports said a final agreement had not yet been reached. Iran was also reported to be considering a voluntary fund under which European states would contribute to the cost of maintaining the strait.

The political backdrop was also active. A senior Israeli official told N12, as reported by Al Arabiya, that President Trump wants a deal with Iran at any cost, and described the gap between peace and war under the current administration as as narrow as the distance between letters on a keyboard. Separately, Saudi Arabia was reported to have struck Yemen's capital, Sanaa, underscoring that regional tensions remain unresolved even as Hormuz diplomacy advances.

Later in the session, Axios reported that the US, Iran and Oman are nearing an interim deal to reopen the strait, targeting a Wednesday announcement that would restore the US-Iran ceasefire and pave the way for resumed nuclear talks. Under the reported terms, Trump has paused planned military strikes to allow diplomacy to continue. The 60-day arrangement would reportedly give Iran greater control over strait traffic than it had before the war began, with no tolls charged in the initial period.

Trump later struck an optimistic tone in comments to Fox News, saying talks with Iran are going very well and that the strait will open very soon. He added that the 'heavy blow' has not yet come and expressed hope that it would not be needed.

The shifting but broadly positive tone on Hormuz weighed on oil, which eased modestly, while gold climbed back above US$4,130 an ounce as lower energy-price risk reduced inflation expectations and, in turn, the perceived odds of further Federal Reserve tightening. The move highlighted how closely gold has tracked developments around the diplomatic process this week, even as central bank buying and Asian ETF inflows continue to provide support.

Currency markets were volatile. The New Zealand dollar fell after data showed the unemployment rate climbing to an 11-year high, even though other details of the report, including a modest beat on employment growth, were less negative. Separate data from ANZ showed New Zealand's World Commodity Price Index fell 3.9% in July, the largest monthly decline since November 2022, although the index is still up 0.5% on the year.

The yen strengthened after a garbled Bessent message on the currency and the Bank of Japan, via an NHK report, which was still enough to cap USD/JPY during the morning session. Additional support came from data showing Japanese real wages rose for a sixth consecutive month, along with Bank of Japan June meeting minutes that showed policymakers debating mounting price risks even as they delivered the June hike. That reinforced the view that the balance is shifting toward another rate increase in September.

China delivered a weaker data point, with the RatingDog China Services PMI falling to 50.4 in July from 54.1 in June, well below the 53.7 expected and the weakest reading since September 2024. The reading pointed to a notable slowdown in domestic demand.

On the central bank front, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid repeated his hawkish message, saying tighter monetary policy is needed to bring inflation, which he said remains too high, back to the 2% target. He also said artificial intelligence-related investment is contributing to price pressures. Separately, the People's Bank of China set its daily USD/CNY reference rate at a fresh 41-month high for the yuan.

In earnings news, SpaceX delivered a strong debut as a public company, reporting second-quarter revenue of US$7.8 billion, up 92% year on year and above the US$6.81 billion estimate. Its AI segment posted a narrower-than-expected operating loss of US$1.26 billion versus a forecast loss of US$2.39 billion, and adjusted EBITDA reached US$3.5 billion.

AMD also beat expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of US$1.66 versus US$1.62 expected and revenue of US$11.54 billion compared with the US$11.31 billion forecast. Operating margin was 27.0%, and the company guided third-quarter revenue to US$12.70 billion-US$13.30 billion, above the US$12.51 billion consensus.