Rigetti Computing (RGTI), a pure-play quantum computing company that develops superconducting quantum processors, is scheduled to release its Q2 2026 earnings after markets close on Thursday. Wall Street analysts anticipate an adjusted loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $5.09 million.

The expected revenue figure would represent another significant year-over-year increase for the company, which reported $4.40 million in Q1 2026 revenue — a 198.9% jump from the same period a year earlier. While those growth rates are substantial, they reflect the early-stage nature of the commercial quantum computing market, where revenue bases remain small as the industry works toward demonstrating practical quantum advantage over classical computing.

Recent Stock Performance

RGTI was trading around $17.45 earlier this week after gaining 8.9% in a single session, with an intraday high of $17.72, before pulling back slightly ahead of the earnings report. Volume during that session reached approximately 24 million shares, below the three-month average of roughly 33.5 million.

Year-to-date, RGTI is down 24.33%. Over the trailing 12 months, however, the stock is up 7.15%. With a beta of 1.95, the shares have exhibited substantial volatility — a characteristic common among early-stage quantum computing stocks that often trade on long-term technology milestones rather than near-term financial results.

Earnings Track Record

In Q1 2026, Rigetti beat EPS estimates, reporting a $0.04 loss versus the $0.05 consensus. The broader track record is mixed, however. Adjusted EPS has topped estimates in only four of the past eight quarters, while revenue has beaten expectations in just two of the past eight.

Post-earnings moves have also leaned negative. RGTI has declined following three of its last four earnings releases. The sole positive post-earnings move during that stretch was a 6.42% gain after Q2 2025 results.

Trading volume ahead of Thursday's report was relatively light, with only about 9.62 million shares changing hands during the day, well below the three-month average of 25.88 million.

Analyst Sentiment

Despite the volatile price action, Wall Street remains broadly positive on RGTI. The consensus rating stands at "Moderate Buy," based on six Buy ratings and three Hold ratings issued over the past three months. The average price target is $30.71, representing approximately 32.71% upside from current levels.

Benchmark initiated coverage in late July with a Buy rating and a $25 price target. Needham maintains a $31 target, while Mizuho trimmed its target from $33 to $27 but retained an "outperform" rating.

Institutional and Insider Activity

On the institutional side, Vanguard increased its position by 12.2% and State Street added to its stake by 12% during Q2 — signaling continued confidence from two of the largest passive investing firms.

The insider picture is less favorable. Over the past three months, insiders sold approximately $17.5 million worth of stock. CTO David Rivas alone sold roughly $12.7 million, reducing his ownership by 60.5%.

For investors watching Thursday's report, beyond the headline EPS and revenue figures, updates on Rigetti's quantum processor development roadmap — including qubit counts and error correction progress — alongside any commentary on customer engagement and government contract pipeline are likely to draw attention, as these are key benchmarks in the competitive quantum computing landscape that includes IBM, Google, IonQ, and D-Wave.

Q2 2026 earnings are due after markets close Thursday.

Source: CoinCentral