Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has said that communication with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is currently “very difficult,” according to a report by Iranian state television. The comment comes amid the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States-Israel coalition, which has brought major disruptions and tighter security measures.

Khamenei’s limited public appearances and reliance on indirect communication methods underscore the intensity of the wartime environment and point to possible challenges in internal coordination in Tehran. In practice, that makes any diplomatic outreach or policy signaling harder to read for outside observers, especially when regional tensions are already elevated and official messaging can move through multiple channels before becoming public.

Market pricing indicates that the likelihood of US-Iran peace talks taking place in the UAE by September 30, 2026, has fallen. Current market conditions reflect uncertainty over the location and timing of any future US-Iran diplomatic meeting.

What to Watch

Observers will be watching for any official announcements from Tehran or Washington about the resumption of talks. A joint statement from the parties involved could shift market expectations, especially if a venue is announced.

For now, the wartime environment and communication difficulties within Iran’s leadership may continue to slow diplomatic progress, suggesting that the probability of a meeting in the UAE remains low. Key figures including US President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi may provide further clarity on the evolving diplomatic situation.

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