Domestic abuse allegations have sent the re-election odds of an Ohio Republican tumbling, according to a new analysis, and continued support from GOP leadership could put a House majority at risk.

Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) has refused to end his campaign despite domestic abuse allegations from his ex-wife, which he denies. Neither President Donald Trump nor House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has called on him to drop out.

CNN's Harry Enten said the controversy has already reshaped the race for Ohio's 7th Congressional District, where even a relatively small shift in voter sentiment can matter in a closely watched House contest.

"Max Miller is going to cost his party, most likely cost his party a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives," Enten warned.

Prediction markets have shifted sharply since the allegations became public, Enten said. On the Kalshi betting market, Democratic candidate Brian Poindexter's odds of winning the seat rose from 37 percent on July 25 to 70 percent now, while Miller's odds fell over the same period from 64 percent to 30 percent. Enten said the reversal began just 10 days after the scandal broke.

Enten found that House members embroiled in scandal are historically re-elected only 57 percent of the time, compared with 85 percent for members overall, a roughly 30-point penalty.

"Scandals still do matter in our politics," Enten said.

Local interest in the story appears unusually high. Google search traffic for "Max Miller" in the Cleveland-Akron area, the congressman's home turf, has surged 3,200 percent over the past two weeks, which Enten said is a record high for searches about him in the district.

Republicans were already weakening in Ohio, which has become a reliably red state in recent years, Enten said. Voters who backed Donald Trump by 11 points over Kamala Harris in 2024 now give the president a net approval rating of negative 13, a swing of nearly 25 points in under two years.

Because Ohio's 7th District tends to track statewide trends, that erosion adds to Miller's difficulties and puts the seat in the broader context of a state where GOP standing has already softened.

"This is already shaping up to be a bad Republican year in Ohio," Enten said. "When you have a scandal to tack onto it, no wonder the prediction markets have moved like they have."

"You put it all together, it is is no wonder why I said at the top of this [that] Max Miller, already running in a tough environment with this scandal, and if he continues to run, will likely cost his party a House seat," Enten added.

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