After three years of a freight recession that kept trucking rates low for shippers, the second quarter delivered clear evidence that the landscape is shifting. According to the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index released Tuesday — one of the freight industry's longest-running benchmarks, drawn from actual shipper payment transactions — shippers moved less freight between April and June while paying substantially more to do so.

The National Shipment Index declined 1.1% from the first quarter to 75.1, marking the second consecutive sequential drop. Shipper spending, however, moved in the opposite direction, climbing 6.4% to 230.4.

The year-over-year comparison is even more pronounced. Volumes fell 2.8% from a year earlier, erasing the first quarter's 0.6% annual gain — which had been the first year-over-year increase in four years. Spending surged 28.1% annually.

For shippers, the combination represents negative operating leverage: a shrinking volume of loads costing more per load, with no growth to offset the increase.

"While higher fuel prices added to transportation costs in the second quarter, fuel was not the primary force behind the increase in shipper spending," said Bob Costello, senior vice president and chief economist at the American Trucking Associations, the industry's largest trade association representing motor carriers of all sizes.

Capacity Tightening Drove Costs More Than Fuel

Fuel costs were nonetheless significant. DAT Freight & Analytics, a widely used load board and freight rate data provider, reported second-quarter fuel costs of 75 cents per mile, up 47.1% from the first quarter and 78.6% from a year earlier. Some relief came late in the quarter, as the national average diesel price declined from an April peak above $5.64 per gallon to $4.67 — nearly a dollar lower.

Capacity constraints played the larger role. More than three years of recessionary conditions forced small, midsize, and large fleets out of the market amid weak rates, rising costs, and softer volumes. The freight trucking industry has historically cycled between periods of oversupply that depress rates — such as the pandemic-era capacity expansion — and periods of tightening that push rates higher. While that capacity exit never fully matched the low level of demand, it did narrow the gap between supply and demand.

Industry participants have also identified a second factor. Enforcement of English language proficiency (ELP) requirements, revocations of non-domiciled commercial driver's licenses, and heightened oversight of driver training schools all intensified over the past year. These actions may have helped align supply with demand and, in certain markets, reduced available capacity further.

The outcome is a freight market that tightened even as it contracted. Carriers experiencing more freight activity may be benefiting from fewer competing fleets pursuing the same loads rather than from a broad-based demand recovery.

Spot Rates Nearly Converge with Contract Rates

Rate data reveals how quickly the rate floor shifted. Spot rates reflect real-time, transactional pricing for loads booked on the spot market, typically through digital freight boards. Contract rates, by contrast, are negotiated in advance between shippers and carriers under longer-term agreements for recurring freight volumes. DAT reported average spot rates of $3.02 per mile in the second quarter — an 18.9% increase that followed an 11.9% gain in the first quarter. That figure is 75 cents, or 33%, above the fourth quarter of 2025 and 88 cents, or 41.1%, above year-earlier levels.

Contract rates also rose, though at a more moderate pace, averaging $3.06 per mile. That represents a 13% sequential increase and a 20.9% increase, or 53 cents, from the second quarter of 2025. Neither figure includes fuel, which DAT reports separately.

The gap between spot and contract rates has narrowed to just 4 cents. A year earlier, that gap stood at 39 cents. Spot pricing has effectively converged with contract pricing.

This convergence serves as a notable forward indicator. Spot rates typically move first, with contract rates following on the next bid cycle, suggesting that a more challenging rate environment for shippers lies ahead rather than behind.

Southwest Region Highlights the Cost of Tight Capacity

No region illustrates the divergence between falling volumes and rising costs more sharply than the Southwest. Shipments there declined 0.6% sequentially and 20.2% year-over-year. Spending rose 11.2% and 39.9% over the same respective periods. Across the first half of 2026, regional shipments dropped just over 10% from the fourth quarter of 2025, while shipper spending increased nearly 24%.

Tighter capacity appears to be the primary factor. During the quarter, the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Transportation increased coordination around possible cabotage violations by Mexican B-1 drivers, resulting in significant B-1 visa cancellations. Given the Southwest's central role in cross-border freight, these developments likely had a more visible impact there.

Underlying demand was also soft. Housing starts across the broader South fell 14.4% from the first quarter and 9.6% from a year earlier. Dallas Fed contacts reported weaker retail sales tied to gasoline prices and pressure on low-income consumers.

"The Southwest continued to stand out this quarter," said Bobby Holland, director of freight business analytics at U.S. Bank. "The gap between declining shipments and rising spending was more pronounced there than anywhere else in the country. It's a signal that capacity conditions can have a significant impact on freight costs even when underlying demand isn't growing."

Spending Rose in Every Region but One

Regional volume trends were mixed. The Southeast posted the largest sequential gain at 0.9% — its first increase in three quarters and its largest in two years — supported by data center construction in Northern Virginia and Atlanta. The West rose 0.5%, the Northeast was flat, and the Midwest recorded the steepest sequential decline at 3.7%. On an annual basis, the picture diverged further: the West led all regions at 5.5%, the Midwest gained 2.8% and the Northeast 2.0%, while the Southeast fell 6.5%.

Spending patterns were far more consistent across regions. Sequential spending increased everywhere except the Midwest, where it slipped 0.8%. The West led at 12%, followed by the Southwest at 11.2% and the Southeast at 10%. The Northeast's 5% rise marked its seventh consecutive quarterly increase. Year-over-year, every region posted gains above 20%, ranging from 22.9% in the Midwest to 39.9% in the Southwest.

An additional second-quarter development underlies these figures. On May 14, 2026, the Supreme Court ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC clarified that brokers could face scrutiny over carrier selection, potentially elevating the legal exposure freight brokers face when hiring carriers involved in accidents. Some brokers appear to be reassessing carrier qualifications, though the measurable impact during the quarter was modest.

The spending index remains 17% below its second-quarter 2022 peak, indicating this is not a return to pandemic-era pricing levels. Some freight may also be shifting to rail as truck rates climb, though American Trucking Associations analysis suggests that effect is limited.

Costello summarized the broader trajectory: "The more important trend is that trucking capacity continues to tighten after several years of excess supply. As available capacity becomes scarcer, rates are moving higher, leaving shippers with higher costs despite a freight market that remains relatively soft."