@Crypto_Briefing•26 minuten geleden
Every prediction market has to be settled by something.
You probably picture a person reading the news and making the call.
On July 23 we read the written resolution rule of every market Polymarket had listed, all 584,210, parsed in one pass by the same script. 582,754 carry rule text. 1,456 carry none.
60.31% settle on the official result of a scheduled contest: a tennis match, a World Cup game, a Counter-Strike map. Another 30.41% settle on a price feed. Add the 5.55% on a named published statistic and 96.27% of the catalogue is read off a scoreboard, a feed or a dataset.
Human judgement, a rule naming no source but a consensus of credible reporting, decides 5,396 markets. 0.92%.
The wars, the elections, the leadership changes sit in that sliver. By count they barely register.
Counts and shares of markets as of July 23. Never a price, a return or a direction.
The census is Vera.
