NewsMacroBofA CEO Moynihan Expects Three Fed Rate Hikes by Year-End 2026, Sees AI Investment Unaffected

BofA CEO Moynihan Expects Three Fed Rate Hikes by Year-End 2026, Sees AI Investment Unaffected

Author: ForexLive·

Key Takeaways

  • Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan anticipates the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three times during the remaining FOMC meetings this year.
  • He expects inflation to settle in the mid-2% range by the end of 2027 before gradually declining toward the Fed's 2% longer-term target.
  • Commerce Department data showed the PCE Index rose 3.7% annualized in June, with core PCE increasing 3.3%, indicating persistent price pressures above the central bank's goal.
  • Moynihan attributed the recent inflation resurgence to tariffs and the ongoing war, both of which he said are fading as drivers of price pressure.
  • He stated that higher interest rates are unlikely to meaningfully disrupt AI infrastructure spending, as data center investment returns remain strong enough to absorb increased borrowing costs.
BofA CEO Moynihan Expects Three Fed Rate Hikes by Year-End 2026, Sees AI Investment Unaffected

Bank of America Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said he expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times this year, offering a notably more specific forecast than the guarded language typically used by Fed officials themselves.

Speaking in an interview with CNBC, Moynihan said he anticipates rate hikes at the remaining Federal Open Market Committee meetings in September, November, and December. He said policymakers currently believe three increases would be sufficient to bring inflation under control, though he cautioned that the outlook could shift if inflation data continues to surprise to the downside.

"If it goes better than, like last month, it went down better than people thought, then I'm sure they would change that expectation," Moynihan said. "But right now, they think that three hikes gets the Fed in a place that they can have the inflation tamed."

The remaining FOMC meetings for the year are scheduled in September, October, and December.

On the broader inflation trajectory, Moynihan said he expects price growth to settle in the "mid-2s" by the end of 2027 before gradually declining toward the Fed's longer-term 2% target thereafter. He attributed the recent resurgence in inflation to the combined effects of tariffs and the ongoing war, both of which he said are now beginning to fade as drivers of price pressure.

"If you look at the issues of inflation rolling through the economy, it was mitigating and then popped back up because of the impact on prices from tariffs, impact on prices from the war, and that's coming back down," he said.

His comments follow data released by the Commerce Department showing the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.7% on an annualized basis in June. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, increased 3.3% annualized, up 0.1% on the month, undershooting that underlying price pressures remain well above the central bank's target.

Moynihan's forecast adds a prominent institutional voice to the debate over the Fed's rate path. Bank of America is the second-largest US bank by assets, and its economic research team is closely watched by fixed-income investors for signals on the trajectory of borrowing costs. His view that three hikes are needed to tame inflation — paired with a slower return to the 2% target than markets may be pricing — could weigh on rate cut expectations and put upward pressure on front-end yields if investors interpret his remarks as reflective of broader institutional consensus.

Moynihan also addressed the potential impact of higher rates on the artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout, a sector that has attracted heavy capital investment from major technology companies. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta have collectively committed tens of billions of dollars to data center expansion to support generative AI workloads, and the pace of that spending has become a key metric for semiconductor and cloud infrastructure investors. He said he does not expect further rate increases to meaningfully affect the short-term financing that companies are using to fund data center and AI infrastructure projects.

The returns being generated by data center investments are strong enough that companies should be able to absorb higher borrowing costs on long-term bonds as well, Moynihan added, suggesting the AI investment cycle is unlikely to be significantly disrupted even if the Fed proceeds with additional hikes this year. His remarks indicate BofA sees limited risk that higher rates will derail the current capital expenditure cycle, which could support sentiment toward AI infrastructure and semiconductor equities even in a higher-rate environment.

Combined with recent PCE data running well above target, Moynihan's comments reinforce a narrative of stickier-than-expected inflation persisting into 2027.