Bitcoin traded sideways while open interest continued to rise, a setup that crypto analyst Alphractal said resembles patterns seen during the previous bear market. According to Alphractal, the increase in derivatives activity suggests market participants are building positions as Bitcoin waits for its next major move.

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $64,542, up 0.84% over the previous 24 hours. Bitcoin recorded $12.43 billion in daily trading volume and had a market capitalization of $1.29 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin Derivatives Activity Resembles 2021-2022 Bear Cycle

On July 26, 2026, Alphractal highlighted a notable pattern developing in Bitcoin derivatives markets in a post on X: https://x.com/Alphractal/status/2081132917871276046. The analyst said Bitcoin open interest across the top 30 exchanges has been rising even as the broader market remains in a bear period.

Alphractal said the current trend looks similar to conditions observed during the 2021-2022 bear market, particularly when open interest is measured in BTC rather than in U.S. dollars.

That distinction matters because measuring open interest in Bitcoin removes the effect of BTC’s changing dollar price. It can provide a clearer view of how much leverage and exposure traders are taking on in the derivatives market.

According to Alphractal, Bitcoin’s spot price is not the only part of the market that moves in cycles. Derivatives activity, including leverage and positioning, has also followed recurring patterns during previous market cycles. While no two cycles are identical, the analyst said investor behavior often shows similarities during periods of uncertainty.

Open Interest Points to Rising Futures Market Participation

Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding futures and perpetual contracts that have not yet been closed. When open interest rises, it often indicates that additional capital is moving into the futures market.

However, higher open interest does not by itself mean Bitcoin’s price will increase. Instead, it shows that more market participants are building positions, which can raise the possibility of larger price swings once the market establishes a clearer direction. Traders often compare open interest with price action, funding rates, and liquidation data to assess whether leverage is becoming crowded on either side of the market.

In previous weak market periods, rising open interest often came before phases of increased volatility, as leveraged positions were either liquidated or benefited from subsequent price moves. For that reason, analysts are watching derivatives activity closely to assess whether Bitcoin is approaching another major market shift.

Technical Indicators Show Slowing Momentum

Bitcoin was trading at $64,542, while technical indicators suggested bullish momentum had slowed after its recent rally.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, stood at 51.20, with the signal line at 53.82. The RSI remained close to the neutral 50 level, indicating that buying pressure had eased and that neither buyers nor sellers had established clear control. Such a reading is commonly associated with a market moving sideways while awaiting a stronger catalyst.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, indicator remained positive. The MACD line was at 374.32, above the signal line at 345.38, while the histogram remained bullish at 28.94.

Although those readings still reflected a positive technical setup, the narrowing gap between the MACD line and the signal line indicated that upward momentum was gradually weakening. If that pattern persists, Bitcoin could remain range-bound before attempting another significant breakout or breakdown.

BTC Holds Key Level as Traders Watch Leverage

Bitcoin remained in a holding pattern above $64,000, with technical signals pointing to weakening momentum rather than a confirmed reversal. At the same time, the continued increase in open interest indicated that market participants were becoming more active in futures markets.

If buying demand strengthens, the higher level of derivatives activity could contribute to another upward move. Conversely, if prices decline while leverage continues to build, the market could face a sharper correction as leveraged positions unwind.

For now, the combination of neutral technical readings and rising open interest suggests BTC is nearing another important decision point, with upcoming trading sessions likely to help determine whether spot demand or leveraged positioning has the stronger influence on near-term market structure.