Bitcoin was trading around $64,500 to $66,000, little changed over the previous 24 hours, as Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, argued that the bear market may already be over if the Federal Reserve does not resume rate hikes.

Pandl framed Bitcoin’s next move through two competing models. The first is the traditional four-year halving cycle, which has historically allowed for steep corrections after cycle peaks. Under that framework, Bitcoin could still revisit the $50,000 area before establishing a lasting bottom.

INSIGHT: Grayscale's Head of Research Zach Pandl says Bitcoin's bottom may already be in if the Fed holds off on rate hikes. He pushes back on the "four-year cycle" theory, which points to a lower bottom in September or October. pic.twitter.com/gJwaeOEmGH — Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) July 23, 2026

https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/2080135993089257700?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Grayscale, however, favors a different interpretation. The firm views the recent decline as a cyclical pullback within a longer-term uptrend. In that scenario, a durable floor has likely developed around $60,000 to $65,000. The central variable remains Federal Reserve policy, because a stable interest-rate outlook supports Grayscale’s constructive case. Rate expectations matter for Bitcoin because higher yields can tighten financial conditions and reduce investor appetite for risk assets, while a pause can give traders more confidence to assess demand, liquidity, and positioning.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are also continuing to attract institutional interest, reinforcing that outlook. Since spot ETFs provide regulated brokerage access to Bitcoin exposure without requiring investors to hold coins directly, their flows have become one of the market’s closely watched demand signals. Whether that demand remains intact after the next round of macroeconomic data remains a key question for the market. For now, Bitcoin is holding within the $64,500 to $66,000 range as traders await a clearer catalyst.

Bitcoin Tests Resistance Near $66,000

Bitcoin is pressing against resistance near $66,000. A confirmed daily close above that level could open a move toward $68,500 to $70,000. If momentum strengthens, the $72,000 area would become the next major hurdle. On the downside, support is seen around $60,000 to $62,000, a zone that bulls would need to defend to preserve the current structure.

The technical picture remains mixed, though it has been gradually improving. Bitcoin continues to consolidate below a descending trendline, while analysts are watching for a breakout above resistance. Grayscale added a fundamental angle by noting that recent buyers have largely returned to breakeven. That suggests the market has absorbed much of the recent selling pressure rather than merely postponing it.

The bullish case depends on Bitcoin breaking above $66,000 with strong volume. If that level turns into support, the price could climb toward $68,500 to $70,000. Softer macroeconomic data would likely strengthen that setup and improve broader market sentiment.

The base case remains continued consolidation between $62,000 and $66,000 while traders wait for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve. ETF demand could continue to provide gradual support. However, a decisive move below $60,000 would revive the four-year cycle argument and bring the $55,000 to $60,000 area back into focus. Historical volatility also suggests that prolonged consolidation can occur even during established uptrends.

Bitcoin Hyper Cited as Bitcoin Ecosystem Project

The source also highlighted Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), a Bitcoin Layer 2 project integrating the Solana Virtual Machine. It described Bitcoin Hyper as the first BTC Layer 2 to provide SVM-based smart contract execution, combining Bitcoin’s security and trust model with sub-second finality and low fees that the base chain does not structurally offer.

According to the source, Bitcoin Hyper’s presale has raised $32.9 million at a current price of $0.0136836, with staking available for early participants. The project’s presale momentum has drawn attention as regulatory clarity around Bitcoin infrastructure projects comes into sharper focus. For readers tracking the broader Bitcoin ecosystem, Layer 2 projects are relevant because they attempt to expand transaction capacity and application functionality beyond Bitcoin’s base settlement layer, though individual projects still depend on execution, adoption, and security assumptions.