Bitcoin remains in a bear market but may be approaching the final phase of the current downturn, according to a chart analyst who is tracking the cryptocurrency’s historical four-year cycle. The analyst said a potential cycle bottom could form as early as October, while emphasizing that timing models and seasonal patterns are not precise forecasts.

Bitcoin’s Historical Cycle Pattern

Bitcoin has historically moved through a pattern of roughly one year of bear-market conditions followed by about three years of bull-market activity, based on prior market cycles. The current decline began after Bitcoin reached its October 2025 high, placing the asset approximately on pace to enter the final quarter of its downturn, the analyst said.

For the third quarter, Bitcoin has already moved into the full $66,230 to $76,640 resistance zone, an area the analyst had previously identified as the likely ceiling for this stage of the cycle. If Bitcoin continues to reject from that resistance range, the analyst said the next downside areas to monitor are $56,500 and then $44,000. A further decline toward $39,000 was identified as an additional downside target if selling pressure accelerates.

Those price zones are technical-analysis reference points rather than guaranteed turning points. Traders often use support and resistance areas to assess whether buyers or sellers are controlling a range, especially when those levels coincide with broader cycle or seasonal signals.

Near-Term Bitcoin Levels to Watch

On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin was rejected near $66,300 in mid-July and later broke below a rising trend line. That trend line is now positioned near $65,300 and may act as resistance in future trading, according to the analyst.

The key near-term support zone is between $59,369 and $62,533. The analyst described this range as the main area to watch heading into the weekly close, with Bitcoin’s reaction there potentially shaping the next short-term move. Weekly closes are commonly watched in chart analysis because they can help distinguish a temporary intraday move from a more durable break of support or resistance.

A separate resistance band between $64,922 and $66,227 is also being monitored as a possible ceiling for any short-term rebound. That range is based on Fibonacci retracement levels measured from the recent high.

Seasonal Data Points to August Volatility

Seasonality data reviewed by the analyst indicates that August and September have historically been weaker months for Bitcoin during bear-market years, including 2014, 2018, and 2022. By contrast, July has typically been the strongest month in a bear-market year.

In 2022, Bitcoin continued to rise into mid-August before reversing lower. The analyst said a similar setup could develop again, although he cautioned that it is not a scenario he would trade aggressively. The comparison is being used as a historical reference, not as evidence that the same path must repeat.

Separate Timing Model Highlights October

The analyst also cited a separate cycle-tracking tool that identifies a dominant 260-day rhythm in Bitcoin’s price action. That model previously signaled a cycle top forming in late May, which was followed by the current selloff.

Using the same rhythm, the tool points to the possibility of a major low forming around October this year, with a margin of two to four weeks in either direction.

The analyst stressed that both seasonal data and cycle-based tools reflect broad tendencies rather than exact predictions. He said no method can guarantee precisely when or where Bitcoin’s bear market will end.