大豆先物、5週間ぶり安値圏に向けて下落拡大
重要ポイント
- •大豆先物は1ブッシェル当たり約11.5ドルまで下落し、5週間ぶり安値圏に近づいた。
- •US-Iranの合意成立の可能性を巡る報道を受けた原油安が、植物油市場を圧迫した。
- •StoneXは2026年の米大豆収穫量を4.47 billion bushelsと予想し、潤沢な供給見通しが意識された。
- •USDAは、2026/27 marketing year向けに中国へ132,000 metric tonsの米大豆を民間販売したと確認した。
- •Black Sea地域の輸出リスクは意識されたものの、同地域での大豊作見通しが引き続き価格の重しとなった。
大豆先物はさらに下落し、1ブッシェル当たり約11.5ドルとなり、原油価格の軟化が植物油市場の重しとなる中で5週間ぶり安値に近づいた。
Oil prices dropped sharply after reports of a potential US-Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Agricultural commodity prices often track energy markets because crop-based feedstocks are increasingly used in biofuel production, so shifts in crude can feed through to soy complex pricing even when crop-specific headlines are limited.
Additional pressure came from expectations of ample global supplies, with brokerage StoneX forecasting the 2026 US soybean harvest at 4.47 billion bushels.
While the US Department of Agriculture recently confirmed a private sale of 132,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year, the purchase did little to offset the bearish supply outlook.
Traders also continued to monitor developments in the Black Sea region, where the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war threatened grain export routes. Even so, expectations for another large harvest from the region continued to weigh on prices.
Source: Trading Economics