XRP is trading near $1.14 after a sharp recovery from its lower range, with traders now watching whether the move can develop into a confirmed macro reversal. The market has shifted from consolidation into a critical breakout test. XRP, the native token of Ripple's payment network, has long been sensitive to regulatory developments, and its current price action unfolds against the backdrop of Ripple's multi-year legal proceedings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — a case that has shaped investor sentiment and trading behavior since its filing in late 2020.

XRP Tests the $1.20 Reversal Level

XRP is holding near $1.14 after reclaiming short-term resistance, but the larger reversal still requires stronger confirmation. Analyst CasiTrades noted that XRP's wave two correction has reached the 0.854 retracement near $1.16, which remains valid within her bearish purple scenario. According to her chart analysis, XRP must avoid a new high above $1.20 for the bearish count to stay active. A move below current levels would keep the path open toward lower support zones near $0.93 and $0.87.

The bullish case improves if Ripple's price breaks above $1.20. That level would invalidate the bearish purple count and shift attention toward $1.30. A clean break above $1.30 would weaken the broader bearish structure and open the door toward $1.55 and $1.65.

The XRP chart also showed bearish RSI divergence across multiple degrees after the $1.164 reaction, meaning momentum has not fully confirmed the price bounce. Still, XRP has held above the mid-range instead of breaking down immediately, keeping both scenarios in play.

Triangle Compression Signals a Bigger Move Ahead

A 4-hour chart shared by Crypto With Gopal showed XRP compressing inside a symmetrical triangle. Price has been forming lower highs and higher lows, signaling that momentum is tightening before a larger directional move — a pattern that often becomes significant after a long corrective phase.

Bulls are defending support aggressively, while sellers continue to cap every advance near resistance. The narrowing range suggests XRP may not remain quiet for long. The chart placed XRP near $1.13, close to the triangle's upper boundary. If buyers clear that region with strength, the measured target points toward the $1.45–$1.50 area, aligning with other charts showing $1.30 as the first breakout checkpoint.

Failure to break higher, however, could send XRP back toward lower triangle support, where the market would likely revisit the $1.08 and $1.02 zones before making another attempt.

Daily Close Above $1.18 Strengthens the Setup

Analyst CRYPTOWZRD pointed to improving daily structure, noting that XRP closed bullish and may see further upside if momentum continues. His chart showed a short-term bearish pullback followed by bullish control, with attention moving toward $1.18 resistance — the first major test before the $1.30 region. If XRP breaks above $1.18 and holds it as support, buyers could gain enough momentum to challenge $1.30.

On the downside, $1.07 serves as the nearest support. Below that, the larger structure weakens and opens the risk of a deeper pullback toward $0.90. For now, XRP remains in a constructive recovery but has not yet delivered the breakout that removes downside pressure.

Ali Charts also noted that XRP has cleared short-term resistance, placing the next major target at $1.30. His 1-hour chart shows a breakout from a narrowing structure, with price moving above $1.08 and pressing toward higher resistance. This supports the short-term bullish case, although confirmation still depends on follow-through above $1.20.

Whale Accumulation Builds Under the Surface

Data from Santiment shows that whale wallets holding 100K–100M XRP have accumulated 2.8% more coins over the past five weeks. Meanwhile, wallets holding less than 0.01 XRP reduced their balances by approximately 5.2% over the same period. The data reflects changes in wallet balances rather than investor intent.

This split suggests that stronger holders are accumulating while smaller wallets lose patience. Historically, XRP has often performed better when larger wallets absorb supply during quiet or uncertain market phases, supporting the view that accumulation is building beneath the surface. Traders are also watching for any developments in the SEC v. Ripple case, as legal milestones have previously triggered sharp price reactions in both directions.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Technical analysis, whale activity, and chart patterns do not guarantee future price performance. Cryptocurrency markets remain highly volatile, and readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.