Support among President Donald Trump's most loyal voters for his Iran war has eroded significantly, with only a third of self-identified MAGA voters now saying the conflict is worth its economic costs — a steep decline from May, when over half backed the commander-in-chief's approach. The erosion is particularly striking given that Trump's "America First" coalition was built in part on skepticism of foreign military entanglements, a stance that animated his 2024 base throughout the campaign.

The findings come from a Politico poll showing a 13-point drop over just two months, signaling, as Politico reported, that "the president's most die-hard supporters are starting to agree with the majority of Americans who have long opposed the U.S.' involvement in the war." The survey further found that "37 percent of self-identified MAGA Trump voters say the U.S. should continue its involvement only if it doesn't increase costs, up from 29 percent who said the same in May ... Nearly 1 in 5 MAGA voters believe that the U.S. should end its war in Iran, regardless of the costs."

According to a source close to the administration who spoke with Politico, frustration within the White House has reached a peak. "I was told by very senior people that the president is now fully aware that the only way to the victory that he wants is completely politically impossible," the source said. "The American people just will not support the kind of escalation it would take at this point. We've got more dead Americans and a politically impossible situation."

Non-MAGA Trump voters expressed even deeper skepticism. Politico reported that "only 21 percent believing it is worth higher costs, while 28 percent say that the U.S. shouldn't continue the war regardless of costs." The poll also indicates that Trump's voters are broadly willing to attribute rising prices to the conflict: "When asked why gas prices have increased since the president took office, the majority of respondents blamed the conflict, including 57 percent of MAGA voters and 63 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters." That linkage reflects a pattern observed in prior Middle East conflicts, where energy markets have historically reacted to regional instability and disrupted supply expectations.

Trump's 2024 supporters are also "split on whether gas prices would have gone up more, less or the same under a Democratic president compared with now." Equal shares of Trump voters — 34 percent and 35 percent, respectively — said prices would have risen more under a Democrat or risen about the same. An additional 20 percent said they believe prices have gone up more under Trump.

Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative magazine, offered a blunt assessment: "This shows that as unpopular as the first round of war was from February to early summer, this second round is even more ridiculous. The American people quite simply do not get it, do not understand why we are in this war, and, yes, President Trump is king of the Republican Party. Yes, the president can do a lot and has a lot of latitude with his own supporters, but kings are not invulnerable from political reality."