Ned Davis Research strategist says gold could keep rising until debt is addressed
Punti chiave
- •LaForge said that gold tends to peak only when governments address debt, which in his view is not happening now.
- •He said that gold's trend remains upward and could continue for several years as policymakers avoid dealing with government debt.
- •U.S. federal spending has reached $6.28 trillion so far in fiscal 2026, up 3.3% from the same period a year earlier.
- •LaForge said there is no clear off-ramp other than currency debasement, which he called a major tailwind for gold.
- •He said that central banks are accumulating gold and that the metal's role as a bearer asset gives it value outside the credit system.
A Forever Gold Bull Market?
Mike Maharrey
How long will the gold bull market last?
Forever.
That is the view of John LaForge, chief alternative strategist at Ned Davis Research. He did not use the word 'forever,' but that is the implication of his comments on Kitco News.
'I think prices peak when we learn how to deal with the debt situation. The longer we let it go, and we don't pay this stuff back, and we keep piling all these debts up, the higher gold prices can go.'
Since no one seems willing to do what it takes to 'deal with the debt situation,' gold prices could continue to rise indefinitely, or until the fiat system finally implodes.
'All I know is the trend is up until we deal with government debt,' LaForge said. 'I think we can still see multiple years of higher prices because I don't get the sense at all that, globally, politicians and leaders want to deal with it.'
In the United States, the government continues to spend more than half a billion every single month despite $40 trillion in outstanding debt. So far in fiscal year 2026, the federal government has spent $6.28 trillion. That is a 3.3 percent increase compared with the same period last year.
A 3.3 percent increase in spending may not seem dramatic. But weren't there supposed to be spending cuts?
DOGE initially seemed promising, but once the headlines faded, spending continued unabated. The 'Big Beautiful Bill' cut some spending but added more.
Despite repeated talk of 'spending cuts,' there appears to be little or no commitment to rein in runaway spending in Congress or the White House. In practice, officials continue to find new reasons to spend money, whether through a domestic crisis or a war overseas. For gold investors, the significance lies less in any single budget measure than in the broader backdrop: persistent borrowing and spending are the same conditions that for years have tied the debt debate to bullion demand.
LaForge said he does not see any off-ramp ahead.
'There's no way to pay this thing beyond just debasing everything. This is the biggest tailwind gold has had.'
Analysts refer to the shift from dollar-denominated assets into gold and silver as the 'debasement trade.'
Even after gold's sharp rise in recent years, LaForge said there is still plenty of room for further gains. He said he believes the market may be in the early stages of a broader commodity 'super-cycle.'
'We have plenty of room for this thing.'
Central banks appear to share this assessment and are accumulating gold, adding a further layer of support to the metal's role as a reserve asset outside the credit system.
LaForge described gold as one of the few 'bearer assets' that can be held outside the credit system. A bearer asset is a financial or digital asset that belongs entirely to whoever physically holds or controls it, with no registration or official record of ownership. This means that gold carries no counterparty risk.
'There just aren't many bearer assets that you as a central bank can hold where everyone in the world pretty much agrees, if you sent them a bar of gold, they'd say, “All right, I'll take payment for that,”' LaForge said.
Could this be a historic moment for gold? LaForge said he believes so.
'Gold has such a unique time in history.'
'This is the time it's all coming together.'
