Le soutien total de Mary Daly, présidente de la Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, à la décision de la banque centrale de maintenir les taux d’intérêt inchangés lors de la réunion du Federal Open Market Committee de juillet de la semaine dernière, alors que l’inflation reste bien au-dessus de l’objectif de 2% de la Fed, laisse entendre que ses commentaires antérieurs sur l’atténuation des effets des droits de douane et sur une éventuelle résolution au Moyen-Orient ne doivent pas être interprétés comme le signal d’un assouplissement imminent. Son avertissement explicite selon lequel la Fed agirait de manière agressive si la dynamique de l’inflation semblait se renforcer maintient fermement un risque haussier sur la table, ce qui pourrait limiter, à court terme, l’ampleur de la baisse des anticipations de détente monétaire intégrée dans les prix. Son observation selon laquelle les entreprises disposent actuellement d’un pouvoir de fixation des prix limité apporte un certain soutien à l’idée que les pressions actuelles sur les prix pourraient s’avérer moins durables, ce qui pourrait atténuer les inquiétudes du marché obligataire si cette lecture se confirmait dans les prochaines données. Avec déjà trois responsables ayant voté en faveur d’une hausse la semaine dernière, les propos de Daly renforcent l’image d’un comité véritablement divisé à l’approche de septembre, maintenant un niveau élevé d’incertitude sur la trajectoire des taux pour les traders.

Avant :

Fed's Daly says tariff impact on inflation beginning to fade

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Daly says the Fed was right to hold rates steady but is watching closely for any sign inflation momentum is rebuilding before September's meeting.

Summary:

Fed's Mary Daly says she was completely supportive of last week's decision to hold interest rates steady

She says the Fed needs to collect more data before the September meeting to determine whether current inflation reflects fading supply shocks or a more persistent trend

Daly says the Fed should stay vigilant but be prepared to act if needed, and would respond aggressively if inflation momentum appeared to be building again

She noted businesses currently have limited pricing power and will struggle to pass on higher input costs to consumers

Daly said consumers are highly focused on oil prices when thinking about inflation, and an end to the Middle East war should reduce that contribution to price pressures

The FOMC voted last week to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, with three officials dissenting in favour of a hike, while several other Fed officials have since argued for openness to raising rates

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said Wednesday she was "completely supportive" of the central bank's decision last week to hold interest rates steady, even as inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, arguing policymakers still need more information before deciding on their next move.

Speaking at an economics conference in Tokyo, Daly said the Fed has "a lot of information we need to collect" ahead of its September policy meeting to determine whether current inflation reflects supply shocks that will fade over time, or whether a longer lasting inflationary trend is taking hold. She said the central bank should remain "vigilant to watch the information as it comes in, but be very prepared to take action" if the data warrants it.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted last week to hold its federal funds rate target steady in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, amid ongoing concern over elevated price pressures. Three officials dissented in favour of a rate hike, citing the persistently high level of inflation, and in the days since, several other Fed officials have argued the central bank needs to remain open to raising rates, or should move to lift short-term borrowing costs to bring inflation back toward target.

Daly acknowledged concern about how the public might react to another period of renewed inflation, and said that if it became apparent inflation momentum was building again, the Fed may need to respond more aggressively to bring price pressures back down to target. Her comments underline that while she supports the current wait and see approach, she is not ruling out a more forceful response if conditions deteriorate.

At the same time, Daly said there are "good reasons" to believe the supply driven shocks that have affected the US economy will not have a lasting impact on inflation. She pointed to businesses currently having limited pricing power, meaning many companies are struggling to pass higher input costs on to consumers, a dynamic that could help contain broader price pressures. She also noted that consumers remain highly focused on oil prices when forming their views on inflation, and suggested that an end to the war in the Middle East should help reduce that particular source of price pressure going forward.

Daly's remarks add further texture to her earlier comments this week, in which she said tariffs have had a clear impact on inflation but that this effect is beginning to fade, and that technology investment tied to artificial intelligence is currently helping to push inflation higher. Taken together, her comments this week paint a picture of a Fed official who supports patience for now, while keeping open the possibility of more decisive action should the balance of these competing inflation forces shift in the wrong direction.