U.S. Homicide Rate Falls 18% in 2026, on Track for Lowest Level in Over a Century, Report Finds
Key Takeaways
- •The United States is on pace for its lowest annual homicide rate in more than a century, with an 18% year-over-year decline across 30 cities translating to approximately 215 fewer killings.
- •The report recorded declines in nine of thirteen tracked crime categories, while shoplifting, domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults, and drug offenses saw modest increases.
- •Crime reductions are occurring across cities with varied political leadership and policy approaches, indicating that national factors rather than any single local strategy are driving the improvement.
- •The lethality rate of violent crimes dropped 23%, meaning victims of serious attacks are increasingly likely to survive compared to previous years.
- •Approximately one-third of the 30 sampled cities bucked the trend, with Norfolk, Virginia recording a 64% rise in homicides and San Francisco experiencing a 55% increase.
An 18% year-over-year decline in the homicide rate across 30 American cities—translating to roughly 215 fewer killings—has the United States on pace for its lowest annual homicide rate in more than a century, according to a new report released Thursday by the independent, nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice.
The findings, drawn from first-half 2026 data, provide one of the earliest comprehensive reads on the year's crime trajectory. If the trend holds through year-end, final figures would mark a historic milestone for public safety. The report tracked 13 crime categories and recorded declines in nine of them, including carjackings, residential burglary, and aggravated assault. Small increases were recorded in shoplifting, domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults, and drug offenses over the same period.
Experts say the improvements are outpacing expectations, with crime rates now improving on pre-2020 baselines—the period before the COVID-19 pandemic triggered unprecedented surges in violence. The sustained reversal indicates that the post-2020 spike in lethal violence has not proven to be a permanent shift.
A Nationwide Phenomenon
Both Democrats and Republicans have sought to claim credit for the positive trend during a competitive midterm election year, a period when public safety routinely ranks among voters' top concerns. However, the data shows that crime reductions are occurring in cities led by officials across the political spectrum, suggesting the driving factors are national rather than tied to any single local policy.
Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, said: "Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map in cities with different political leadership, different housing and economic conditions, different policing and prosecution and violence reduction strategies and different levels of federal enforcement activity."
The council compiles its data from police departments and other law enforcement sources. Some crime categories include figures from as many as 36 cities, while others draw on fewer jurisdictions due to tracking gaps or definitional differences.
Key Findings
One notable finding: violent crimes are becoming less lethal. Gelb highlighted a 23% drop in the lethality rate, measured by the share of serious violent incidents that prove fatal. That metric has gained traction among criminologists as an indicator that extends beyond raw crime counts, capturing whether victims of severe attacks are more likely to survive.
Property crimes broadly declined. Residential burglaries fell 13% year over year and were down 50% compared to pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Shoplifting, however, ran counter to the broader property crime trend with a 5% increase. Drug offenses ticked up slightly but remained below pre-pandemic levels.
Cities That Bucked the Trend
Roughly a third of the 30 sampled cities recorded an increase in deadly violence from the first half of 2025 to the same period in 2026. Norfolk, Virginia, saw a 64% rise in homicides, while San Francisco experienced a 55% increase. Over the longer term, only Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis reported more homicides in 2026 than during the comparable period in 2019.
Competing Explanations
John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago, noted that various factors can explain divergent local trends.
Roman observed that conservative politicians aligned with President Donald Trump are likely to cite intensified immigration enforcement and National Guard deployments in cities such as Los Angeles and Memphis. Liberal politicians, he said, may point to former President Joe Biden's public safety legislation, which strengthened background checks on firearm sales.
Ultimately, Roman argued, the most compelling explanations cut across partisan lines. These include reduced drug usage—leading to fewer transactions in illicit markets often tied to violence—and the influx of post-pandemic federal funding directed toward social programming. Those programs frequently supported positions such as teachers and social workers who engage directly with "young people who are the highest risk of violence and victimization," Roman said.
Both Gelb and Roman agreed that no single factor accounts for the improvements, but Gelb emphasized that the results merit both rigorous study and recognition.
"This is one of the most significant public safety developments in decades," Gelb said. "It means lives are being saved, families are spared trauma and communities are regaining stability."
