WASHINGTON — At the beginning of this electoral cycle, the United States was not at war with Iran. The East Wing of the White House was still standing, and the Kennedy Center was not under threat of demolition. Artificial intelligence data centers were not yet a bipartisan shorthand for the excesses of the tech sector. Democratic socialists were largely confined to the outer margins of political discourse, and Lake Ontario's name was not in question.

Since President Donald Trump entered politics more than a decade ago, he has had a knack for dominating the national conversation so thoroughly that it can be hard to keep up. But as the final midterm of his term rapidly approaches, the landscape is proving to be especially volatile, with Trump himself often stirring the turmoil. All 435 House seats and roughly one-third of the Senate are at stake, and whichever party controls the chambers will set the course—or the limits—of Trump's agenda for his final two years in office.

"Some of these things are out of our control," House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana, told reporters last week when asked whether the frenzy will hurt his party's electoral prospects.

Even the electoral map itself has been shifting, with Texas, California, and Florida among the states that have redrawn congressional districts. Missouri's Republican attorney general is appealing last week's court ruling that blocked a Trump-backed map there.

The twists and turns could keep coming. The economic fallout from Trump's tariffs on Canada could intensify as the election nears. His effort to limit mail ballots could add uncertainty to the voting process just as such ballots are being distributed in states like North Carolina, home to a critical U.S. Senate race.

The president also has more than $400 million at his disposal that could shape the trajectory of the election. And Trump's gilded makeover of Washington contrasts with the economic anxiety many Americans are expressing. The wealth he has amassed in office has little modern presidential precedent, with Trump taking in $1.2 billion from his crypto businesses last year, according to a federal filing released this summer.

That is threatening a bipartisan effort in the Senate to advance legislation to strengthen cryptocurrency regulation as early as next week. Democrats are insisting that the measure include a stronger ethics provision. The dispute matters beyond Washington: the industry has been waiting for a federal framework for digital assets, and the outcome of both the negotiations and the election could determine what that regime will look like.

"We have watched this president enrich himself," said Sen. Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, a key Democratic vote on the bill, who said she would not support it without tougher language.

Democrats and Republicans agree the midterms are about Trump

With so many changes underway, it is perhaps fitting that one thing Democrats and Republicans agree on is that Trump will once again be a central player in the election's final stretch.

"Number one, President Trump," said Ari Fleischer, the White House press secretary under Republican President George W. Bush, when asked to rank the top issues this year.

Rep. Suzan DelBene of Washington, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said: "People are feeling the pain from Trump." She expects voters will elevate candidates who "want to stand up for the American people, the pain that has been inflicted by this administration and Republicans in Congress."

Midterm elections are historically challenging for a president's party as restless voters seek change. Democrats flipped 40 House seats during Trump's last midterm in 2018 and 31 seats during the final race of Bush's term in 2006. Republicans, meanwhile, gained 63 seats in 2010 under Democratic President Barack Obama but flipped fewer than 10 seats in 2022 under President Joe Biden.

Shifting dozens of seats this year could be difficult because partisan redistricting has reduced the number of genuinely competitive races. Still, only one-third of U.S. adults approve of Trump's handling of the presidency, according to a July poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That figure is down slightly from 37% in June and well below the 42% who approved of his work when he took office.

Majorities also disapprove of his handling of the economy and immigration, issues that were central to Trump's election in 2024.

Democrats focus on winning in Washington and beyond

Democrats are confident they can win the handful of seats they need to regain control of the House. There may be a path to flipping the Senate if they can hold on in states like Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire while winning Republican-held seats in places like Maine, Texas, Iowa, or Ohio.

But the party also aims to regain ground outside Washington, devoting resources in particular to the governors' races in Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada, all currently held by Republicans. Governors' offices carry their own stakes beyond Washington: state chief executives shape abortion, education, and voting policy and will help oversee the presidential election process in 2028.

"I am excited about the map and I am optimistic that we are going to pick up several seats," said Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a potential 2028 presidential contender who has led the effort to win governors' races this year as chair of the Democratic Governors Association.

Democrats are especially enthusiastic about Iowa, which has not elected a Democratic governor in 20 years. Their governors association has spent $5 million to back Rob Sand, who has gained national attention for his campaign to connect with rural voters who have abandoned Democrats in recent elections.

But even in a seemingly favorable year, Democrats face challenges. Beshear acknowledged that Arizona, where incumbent Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs faces Republican challenger Andy Biggs, will be a "tough race."

Minnesota's Republican gubernatorial candidate, Lisa Demuth, suggested she would tap into the anti-incumbent mood that has run through both parties to target her Democratic rival, Amy Klobuchar, who has spent nearly 20 years in the Senate after a career in local politics.

"She is a 30-year politician," Demuth said of Klobuchar.

After democratic socialists won a string of primaries this summer, Republicans are eager to tie anyone in the party to the far-left flank. Most candidates aligned with democratic socialists are in solidly Democratic seats. Still, Fleischer said Democrats snatched "defeat from the jaws of victory" by elevating such contenders in a handful of congressional primaries.

Democrats have run democratic socialist candidates in governors' races. But Beshear, who has carved out a centrist lane ahead of his potential presidential bid, rejected Republican efforts to label the broader party.

"The only person I see engaged in socialism is Donald J. Trump, who is taking equity stakes in private companies for the United States government," he said. "That is the definition of socialism."

Voting issues hang over the race

Looming over many of these states is concern that the federal government under Trump will seek to influence the elections—perhaps one of the biggest variables ahead and a prospect some Republicans are warning against.

Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon, a Republican, recently said the behavior of Justice Department officials who monitored poll workers and observed voters was "a bit aggressive" and "irregular."

"I feel very strongly about the federal government coming in and taking our guns," he said at an August meeting to certify election results. "I don't like that. And I don't like the federal government coming in and taking our votes either."

Oklahoma's Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt, who supports a strict proof-of-citizenship voting bill stalled in the Senate, told The Associated Press in July: "I don't think we should federalize the elections at all."

"I believe that is a state issue," he said. "The states should control their own elections."

Given these concerns, some Democrats, particularly in states that could be crucial to the next White House campaign, are framing their races in broader terms.

"2028 starts right now," said Aaron Ford, Nevada's attorney general and candidate for governor. "People across the nation need to understand that Nevada is a swing state, that it needs a governor who will stand up for the electoral process."