Zcash (ZEC), the privacy-focused cryptocurrency, is down roughly 14% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data at the time of writing — a sell-off that has erased more than a month of steady gains accumulated inside an ascending channel in just two sessions.

How the Breakdown Unfolded

Through October and the first days of November, ZEC climbed inside a blue ascending channel even as most of the broader market declined. That relative strength carried a structural flaw: the channel formed after the impulsive drop from the September peak at $1,697, overlapped heavily, and never cleared the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which had curled over at $1,277 and capped every recovery attempt. A rising, overlapping channel trading beneath a rolling 50-day average after a cycle top is the shape technicians typically read as a bear flag — and it resolved the way flags usually do.

Yesterday, the lower rail of the channel, around $1,215, gave way first. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $1,143 followed. Stop-loss orders that had accumulated beneath the channel for five weeks triggered simultaneously, and the resulting wave of long liquidations — the forced closure of leveraged long positions when falling prices hit margin thresholds — ran straight through the 100-day SMA at $1,080 in a single expansion candle without pausing.

Today's session opened at $1,045 and managed only a $5 lift to $1,050 — about $30 short of retesting the broken 100-day average from below — before a second wave of selling pushed the price through $1,000 to an intraday low of $961. That low sits roughly $10 beneath the 0.5 Fibonacci midpoint near $972. Limit buyers absorbed the sweep and lifted the price back to $983 by the time of writing.

Why $972 Held

The June-to-September advance covered $1,450 of vertical distance, from $247 to $1,697. At the midpoint around $972, ZEC has given back exactly half of that move. The 0.5 level often attracts clustered spot bids and algorithmic orders on first touch, which may be the simplest explanation for the $22 lower wick printed off $961.

Behind that bounce, however, lies the chart's emptiest stretch. ZEC traveled from about $800 to $971 in three vertical green candles at the turn of August into September, building no horizontal base along the way. There is no volume shelf between the midpoint and the 0.618 retracement close to $801. Should the midpoint give way, the next structural support is that 0.618 level together with the rising 200-day SMA at $786 and the late-August consolidation zone, roughly $170 to $185 lower.

The RSI Tells the Same Story Faster

Over 48 hours, the daily 14-period RSI — a momentum indicator that measures the speed of recent price moves — dropped from 48.56 to 34.56, opening a 13.09-point gap beneath its signal line at 47.65 — the sharpest two-day momentum dislocation of ZEC's 2026 cycle. The indicator now sits 4.56 points above the 30 oversold threshold, a zone where sellers have historically had to pause or allow a relief test of broken support before pressing lower, though the indicator alone does not force such a move.

The Level Ladder

All retracement levels are anchored to the macro impulse from the $247 June base to the $1,697 September peak, measured from top to bottom.

Two Paths From the Midpoint

From $983, the chart presents one scenario in each direction. Neither constitutes a prediction.

Path one: the midpoint holds. The 100-day SMA was broken without an underside test, and the RSI's gap to its signal line is wide. Sellers who chased the move below $1,000 are exposed to a short-covering squeeze if bids continue to hold the $961–$972 floor. Reclaiming $1,000 would open a mean-reversion move toward today's $1,050 high and a retest of the broken 100-day average at $1,080, with the 0.382 retracement near $1,143 as the stretch target. The reaction at $1,080 would separate a dead-cat bounce from a V-shaped recovery; a rejection there would keep the flag breakdown intact.

Path two: the midpoint fails. If the broader market remains heavy and continued capitulation from the broken channel absorbs the spot bids at the midpoint, the absence of volume structure below $960 would leave little standing in the way. A decisive close beneath $972 and the $961 session low would open the path toward the 0.618 retracement close to $801 and the 200-day SMA at $786, where the late-August consolidation shelf also sits.

Either way, the larger frame is unchanged. Until ZEC closes back above the 50-day SMA at $1,277 and the channel ceiling near $1,354, the September peak at $1,697 remains the origin of an unfinished correction, and bounces from the midpoint represent retests of broken levels rather than the start of a new trend.

ZEC Is Not Falling Alone

The breakdown arrives in a market that is red across the board. Bitcoin slipped under $74,000 after October's consumer price index, released November 10, came in hotter than expected at 0.4% month-on-month, with core inflation holding at 0.3% for a third consecutive month. With the federal funds rate already at 3.75%–4.00%, CoinDesk reports that traders are pricing an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 9 meeting, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller has said a 50-point move is on the table if inflation does not cool. That December 9 meeting stands as the next fixed point on the crypto macro calendar.

The same pressure is visible in the weekly flows and in the charts: more than $1.28 billion left spot Bitcoin ETFs in a week, Ethereum ETFs posted a sixth straight week of withdrawals, Ethereum has erased its August breakout and is testing $2,000, Solana is holding its last support as hike odds climb, and XRP has fallen out of its own channel with $0.99 in sight. Layered on top is the post-midterm picture, where Democratic control of both chambers has narrowed the path to the 60 votes the Clarity Act — the crypto market-structure bill — would need and cooled expectations for near-term crypto legislation.

ZEC's five weeks of relative strength were the exception to that backdrop. The last two days closed the gap.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice. The levels discussed are drawn from Coindoo's own technical analysis and represent scenarios, not forecasts. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; always do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision.