Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, sees earnings per share for the S&P 500 reaching $450 in 2028 — a level about 9% below Wall Street's consensus estimate for that year.

He made the remarks in an interview given ahead of Tuesday's US midterm elections. According to Yardeni, the Street's 2028 earnings outlook for the benchmark index has barely budged, even after a selloff that hit two of the index's biggest names, leaving consensus estimates largely intact despite weakness among the market's largest constituents. A consensus estimate aggregates the earnings forecasts of analysts covering index constituents, which is what makes it the most widely cited baseline for the market's collective expectations. Whether that baseline is revised in upcoming earnings seasons — and how the gap to Yardeni's $450 figure evolves — will be a number to watch.

Yardeni is a veteran Wall Street strategist who founded Yardeni Research, an independent investment research firm, and is widely credited with popularizing the term "bond vigilantes" in the 1980s. His firm publishes earnings and valuation models for US equity indices that are followed across the investment industry.

The S&P 500 consists of roughly 500 large-capitalization US companies and is weighted by market capitalization, meaning its largest members exert an outsized influence on index-level earnings figures. Earnings per share is a standard measure of corporate profitability, and analyst estimates for future index-level earnings are closely monitored by investors as a benchmark for valuing US equities. Because common valuation frameworks apply earnings multiples to EPS assumptions, a forecast set 9% below consensus translates into lower implied index reference values at any given multiple — one reason divergences between individual strategists and Street forecasts tend to draw attention.

This content was first published on COINOTAG: https://en.coinotag.com/yardeni-sp500-2028-eps-450-below-consensus