XRP hovered near $1.29 on Oct. 26 and last traded around $1.30, up 2% in 24 hours, as a declining count of whale wallets and rising exchange balances raised selling concerns. Analyst Ali Martinez warned that a break below the $1.26 support could open the way to a decline of roughly 22%, while fellow market commentator Dark Defender maintained a contrasting Elliott Wave forecast targeting $7.07. The competing outlooks arrive with XRP sitting just above a channel boundary that has shaped its price action since August.

Whale Wallets Holding 10M–100M XRP Fall to 339

The number of XRP wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million tokens fell from 351 to 339 over the past few weeks, according to data from on-chain analytics platform Santiment cited by Martinez in a post on X. The decline of 12 wallets in one of the largest holder groups that Santiment tracks leaves the latest reading, recorded as of Oct. 25, 2026, at the lowest count in the recent series.

The decrease followed several smaller changes during the period. Whale wallets stood near 350 at the beginning of the chart before falling below 345, stabilized briefly around 344, then resumed their decline and reached 339.

Large holders can influence the amount of XRP available on the market when they move or sell substantial positions. A falling wallet count does not, however, establish that all 12 addresses sold their holdings. Wallets can also exit the tracked group when their balances drop below the 10 million XRP threshold, meaning the metric reflects cohort membership rather than confirmed selling.

Exchange Balances Increase by Nearly 50 Million XRP

XRP held on trading platforms rose from 11.003 billion to approximately 11.05 billion tokens, an increase of roughly 47 million XRP that Martinez rounded to about 50 million. Balances remained near the upper end of their recent range during the past week, climbing early in the period, easing for several sessions, then recovering toward 11.05 billion. The most recent reading stayed above 11.04 billion, close to the recent high near 11.06 billion.

The increase came as the number of large-holder wallets declined, and Martinez flagged the combination as grounds for warning of further downside. More XRP on trading platforms means exchanges hold a larger supply that users could potentially sell, though the balance figures do not show how much of that supply holders intend to trade.

$1.26 Support Comes Into Focus

Martinez identified $1.26 as critical support, marking the lower boundary of a price channel that XRP has developed since August. A move below that level would open the downside scenario outlined by the analyst, with a first target at $1.11, followed by $0.98 if the decline extends. A fall from $1.26 to $0.98 would equal about 22%, although the projection remains conditional on support breaking rather than describing a completed breakdown.

The chart also places $1.34 and $1.43 above the recent price. XRP previously traded above both levels before dropping toward the channel floor. Going forward, updated Santiment readings on wallet counts and exchange balances, together with how XRP behaves at the $1.26 channel floor, are the metrics against which the analyst's downside scenario can be assessed.

Contrasting Outlook Targets $7.07

Dark Defender presented a different XRP price prediction in a post on X, using an Elliott Wave analysis of the three-day chart — a technical framework that maps price movement into recurring wave patterns — and comparing the pattern seen in October 2026 with conditions in October 2024. The analysis identified a Wave 1 structure dating to November 2024 on the longer-term chart and treats the current period a stage preceding a stronger third wave.

The projection expects the next advance to reach approximately $7.07, with November pointed to as the possible period for renewed upward movement. The chart labels that zone near the 361.8% Fibonacci extension at $7.0786, a ratio-based projection level used in technical analysis, and includes intermediate Fibonacci levels at $1.57, $1.88, $2.90, and $4.10. A further break above $7 could send XRP toward $10.11.

This article provides information, not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry substantial volatility and the potential for losses. Readers should conduct independent research before making investment decisions.