XRP whale inflows to Binance climbed to their highest level in seven months, but the sell signal that dominated market discussion in recent weeks may already be fading, according to on-chain data shared by analysts.

Darkfost, an on-chain analyst, reports that whales moved a monthly average of $112.4 million in XRP to Binance, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges by trading volume — the highest reading since March and comfortably above the roughly $90 million monthly average recorded over the past three months. Inflows have since returned to more typical levels, raising the possibility that the heaviest wave of distribution has already passed.

Darkfost defines whales as transactions exceeding 1 million XRP. Such measurements rest on public blockchain ledgers, which record every transfer between addresses and let analysts tag wallets linked to exchanges. Under that definition, monthly average Binance inflows have climbed by $72 million since August, and daily spikes have topped $400 million at their extremes.

XRP Whale Inflows to Binance hit $112.4M, a 7-month high ripple:native whale activity has intensified in recent weeks, with selling pressure rising sharply. Here, we define whales as transactions exceeding 1 million XRP, which allows us to attribute them to this specific… pic.twitter.com/FsLRe63FTp

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) October 22, 2026

https://x.com/Darkfost_Coc/status/2113197880949285108?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The timing of the surge is difficult to ignore. XRP has rebounded by more than 30% since August, leaving large holders with substantial gains to lock in. The mechanics are straightforward: coins moved onto an exchange can be sold quickly, so rising inflows are generally read as a signal of intent to sell rather than confirmation that selling has occurred. That reading is an interpretation of the data, not a verified fact.

XRP currently trades at $1.32, down 4.41% over the past 24 hours but up 2.66% across seven days. Daily trading volume stands at approximately $1.71 billion.

Price Testing a Key Trendline

The technical picture adds a second layer to the story. On the 4-hour chart, analyst CryptoBusy notes that XRP is testing a major descending resistance trendline — a line connecting successive lower highs that traders watch as a ceiling during a downtrend. The token recovered from $1.26 toward $1.40, briefly broke above the line, then slipped back toward $1.34, with rejection pressure appearing near $1.37.

$XRP is testing a major descending resistance trendline on the 4H chart after recovering from $1.26 toward $1.40. Price briefly broke above the trendline but faced selling pressure, pulling back toward $1.34. A confirmed breakout above $1.38-$1.40 could open the door toward… pic.twitter.com/ApW8aoQB1b

— CryptoBusy (@CryptoBusy) October 22, 2026

https://x.com/CryptoBusy/status/2113193652973416723?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The pullback fits neatly with the whale narrative — a rally that attracts heavy selling often struggles to extend. Still, the data documents two simultaneous events rather than a proven cause, and nothing in the inflow figures establishes that whale deposits drove the rejection at the trendline.

The Bullish Case Is Not Dead

A contrarian reading suggests the market may have already absorbed the worst of the whale supply. Darkfost points out that the September peak in inflows sits well below the one seen in August, and that inflows have since returned to more typical levels. If that pattern holds, the wave of whale distribution has likely already passed.

Price behavior lends some support to that view so far. XRP has held above the $1.26 rebound low, and a market that absorbs a seven-month high in whale inflows without collapsing has shown a notable degree of resilience.

CryptoBusy identifies a confirmed breakout above the $1.38 to $1.40 zone as the key trigger, which could open a path toward $1.45 to $1.50. Those are the analyst's technical levels, not forecasts. CryptoBusy also cautions that the broader downtrend remains intact until resistance is broken and holds.

What to Watch Next

Four conditions will indicate which interpretation wins out:

• Whale inflows: A renewed climb above the $112.4 million monthly average would revive selling concerns. Darkfost warns that the situation can change quickly.
• The $1.33 level: CryptoBusy says losing this level could push XRP toward $1.30 and then $1.26.
• The $1.38 to $1.40 zone: A confirmed close above the zone would support the bullish case.
• Trading volume: Breakouts on thin volume deserve skepticism. Watch whether the $1.71 billion daily figure holds.

Whales have already shown their hand once. The next move belongs to price.

Source: Live Bitcoin News