Spot trading activity in XRP ($XRP) has contracted sharply in recent weeks, even as the token has recovered above the $1.40 level — a sign of reduced interest among spot traders.

Spot markets, where the token itself is bought and sold for immediate delivery, are commonly used as a gauge of direct demand for a cryptocurrency. Futures markets operate differently: they consist of derivative contracts tied to XRP's price, allowing traders to take positions without holding the token. The divergence between the two markets has raised questions about how much of XRP's recent recovery stems from genuine demand in the spot market, and how much is being influenced by speculative trading in derivatives.

Specifically, between Aug. 26 and Oct. 11, XRP's combined spot trading volume across centralized exchanges dropped by $1.943 billion, falling from $2.597 billion to $653.8 million.

These figures represent the seven-day average spot exchange volume, a measure of the average daily trading volume over the previous seven days. Because the indicator covers a full week, it dampens the effect of sudden day-to-day increases or decreases in activity and provides a more reliable picture of the overall trend in trader participation.

Spot Volume Falls Across Major Exchanges

The decline touched Binance and the broader set of centralized exchanges, although the drop outside Binance was far larger in scale.

On Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, XRP's spot trading volume fell from $597 million on Aug. 26 to $168 million on Oct. 11, a decline of $429 million during the period.

Other centralized exchanges recorded an even steeper drop. Taken together, their XRP spot trading volume fell from $2 billion to $485.8 million, a loss of $1.514 billion. In absolute terms, the decline outside Binance was 3.53 times larger than the exchange's $429 million reduction. That gap confirms the contraction in spot activity was not limited to a single platform but extended across the market.

Futures Trading Remains Strong

While spot volume declined, activity in XRP's futures market held firm. Futures trading reflects activity in derivative contracts rather than direct exchange of the token, which is why the two markets are often tracked separately when assessing trader participation.

In September, futures trading volume across Binance, Bybit and OKX reached a combined $56.18 billion, the highest level in six months. Binance accounted for $32.36 billion of the total September futures volume.

Data from the Binance Spot-to-Futures Volume Ratio, an indicator that compares XRP's spot trading volume with its futures volume on Binance, underscores the recent divergence between spot activity and futures trading.

On Sept. 26, the ratio stood at 31%, meaning spot trading accounted for nearly one-third of Binance's XRP trading volume under this measure. By Oct. 11, it had fallen to 12.7%, as spot trading lost a substantial share of market activity.

The difference becomes even clearer when the two markets are compared directly. By Oct. 11, XRP futures trading volume on Binance was approximately 7.9 times its spot volume. On Sept. 26, futures volume stood at around 3.2 times spot volume.

Spot-to-Futures Ratio Nears a Historical Low

The Oct. 11 ratio of 12.7% is also approaching a significant historical low. On Aug. 16, the indicator fell to 11%, when XRP traded below $0.99. At that point, spot trading made up a smaller share of Binance's XRP market activity compared with futures.

XRP now trades near $1.40, considerably above its price below $0.99 in August. Even so, the gap between spot and futures activity remains almost as wide as it was during that earlier period, leaving the balance between spot demand and derivatives-driven activity largely unchanged.

The same indicators that frame this divergence — the seven-day average spot exchange volume and the Binance Spot-to-Futures Volume Ratio — offer a way to track in upcoming readings whether spot participation rebuilds from current levels or the ratio moves past its August low.