XRP, the native token of the XRP Ledger, entered October with its most negative balance of social media discussion since Aug. 17, according to new sentiment readings from crypto analytics firm Santiment.

Santiment shared its Ethereum and XRP sentiment data on X on Oct. 1, writing: "Ethereum and $XRP sentiment has suddenly turned very negative to kick off October."

XRP's bullish-to-bearish ratio stood at 0.67, there were 0.67 bullish comments for every bearish comment — equivalent to roughly 67 optimistic remarks for every 100 pessimistic ones. Bullish language anticipates rising prices, while bearish comments express expectations of declines. "A ratio below 1.0 means negative commentary is the MAJORITY across X, Reddit, Telegram, and other crypto communities," Santiment stated.

Ether Sentiment Also Negative, but Less Imbalanced

The token's reading was weaker than the 0.89 ratio recorded for ether, Ethereum's native cryptocurrency. ETH sentiment also turned negative, reaching its lowest level since June 7, but showed a smaller imbalance between optimistic and pessimistic discussion. Applying the same arithmetic, that reading equates to roughly 89 bullish remarks for every 100 bearish ones. Even so, the 0.89 figure remained below the 1.0 threshold, leaving ether's discussion balance in negative territory as well.

Bearish Mood Draws a Contrarian Interpretation

Santiment's social sentiment calculations filter out neutral or irrelevant messages to measure expressed expectations rather than executed trades. For XRP, the falling ratio captures a shift in crowd emotion rather than confirming an actual rise in selling volume.

A contrarian approach considers opportunities that run against the crowd's prevailing views. Under that interpretation, much of the panic selling may already have occurred by the time traders become convinced that prices will fall. Santiment's analysis favors subdued optimism and heightened fear over widespread excitement about buying the dip — that is, purchasing an asset after a decline. The firm cautioned that neither asset is guaranteed to bounce immediately, framing the current mood as different from periods when widespread expectations favored continued gains. Whether either ratio moves back above the 1.0 threshold will be visible in Santiment's future sentiment readings.

"Fear is returning while some underlying market signals remain healthy, which is exactly the kind of divergence contrarian traders typically wait patiently for," the firm added.

Holder Losses Persisted Despite September's Rebound

The October pessimism follows a September rebound that left a group of XRP holders facing substantial average paper losses. Santiment's Sept. 23 comparison put XRP's average unrealized return at minus 11.75% for coins active within the past year. That measure compares their current value with recorded acquisition value, representing gains or losses before a sale.

Network activity had also increased during the rally. Santiment recorded 1,917 large XRP transactions and 3,647 new wallets as the token crossed $1.60 on Sept. 22, with each counted transfer worth at least $100,000. Those totals describe transfers and addresses, however, and provide no direct measure of net purchases by large investors.

The bearish tone now surrounding XRP contrasts with the enthusiasm another major cryptocurrency attracted during September's advance. Santiment identified bitcoin's strongest positive sentiment spike since December 2024 when it surpassed $87,300 on Sept. 21.