XRP heads into September at a technical crossroads, with elevated volatility and the market's reaction to a key weekly resistance likely to shape its next direction, according to analyst ChartNerd (post on X).

The cryptocurrency previously rebounded from $0.98 and advanced toward $1.70, a move that reflected strong buying interest. However, sellers successfully defended the 50-week EMA and prevented a confirmed weekly breakout. The 50-week exponential moving average is a widely followed medium-term trend indicator, and weekly closes relative to it are commonly used by traders to gauge whether an asset is regaining or losing broader momentum. That failed move has taken on greater significance after XRP recorded two consecutive weekly closes below the indicator. According to the analysis, this pattern leaves room for another correction before the market can establish a more durable recovery.

XRP Under Pressure Between $1.36 Support and Key Resistance

On shorter timeframes, XRP is trading within a narrowing technical structure, with support developing around $1.36 on the four-hour chart. Such compressing ranges often precede sharper moves, as price repeatedly tests the same boundaries on both sides.

For buyers to regain momentum, XRP would first need to reclaim the $1.40–$1.43 area before confronting a stronger supply zone near $1.47. The token was rejected around $1.42 and subsequently slipped below $1.36 on two occasions. Those moves could indicate liquidity sweeps while also pointing to weakening short-term momentum.

XRP has continued to print lower highs beneath resistance, making the $1.36 level particularly important for the near-term outlook. A confirmed breakdown below that support could shift attention toward the 20-week EMA near $1.27, a level that may provide another opportunity for buyers to attempt a recovery. If XRP also loses $1.27, the previous low around $0.98 could come back into consideration.

The setup leaves XRP caught between buyers attempting to reclaim higher levels and sellers defending the broader weekly resistance.

September Outlook Depends on a Weekly Breakout

ChartNerd highlighted $1.54, $1.65, and $1.82 as major resistance levels that could become relevant if XRP successfully breaks above its 50-week EMA. A move through the indicator, however, would not necessarily confirm a sustained trend reversal on its own. The analysis suggests XRP would need multiple weekly closes above the resistance, accompanied by continued buying pressure, to provide stronger confirmation of a breakout.

Reclaiming $1.50 as support would also weaken the case for a deeper retracement. Conversely, continued failure to hold that area would leave lower technical levels exposed.

September therefore presents a potentially important test for XRP. Buyers will need to overcome the 50-week EMA and establish sustained strength above key resistance, while sellers will look for a decisive break below $1.36. The cryptocurrency's reaction around these weekly and short-term indicators could determine whether the recent recovery develops further or gives way to another correction. Traders will be watching whether price can string together weekly closes above the 50-week EMA, or whether the $1.36 and $1.27 supports give way — the outcomes ChartNerd frames as the decisive scenarios for the month.

Writer: Marcus Renfield, Crypto Market Analyst & Onchain Writer.