XRP held on centralized exchanges climbed to 11.81 billion tokens on October 17, placing aggregate exchange reserves in the 99th percentile of the past 365 days, according to CryptoQuant. Such a reading means reserve levels were exceeded on only about 1% of days over the past year — an unusually heavy pool of readily tradable supply sitting on exchanges, though balances alone do not reveal holder intent. The elevated balances coincided with a sharp slowdown in whale activity on Binance, where the 90-day average of whale outflows dropped to its lowest level since October 2021. Taken together, the datasets show exchange supply and derivatives exposure moving in opposite directions.

Whale Outflows Fall to Lowest Levels Since 2021

Analyst Darkfost noted that XRP whale outflows on Binance peaked around February 2025, when XRP traded near $3.30. At that point, the 90-day average of whale outflows reached $3.5 billion, with several daily spikes exceeding $10 billion. Whale outflow metrics track the value of tokens large holders withdraw from an exchange over a rolling window, making them a standard gauge of large-holder withdrawal activity.

Outflows have declined steadily since then. The 90-day average recently fell to $49.7 million, matching levels last seen in October 2021 — more than 98% below the February peak. Darkfost suggested that XRP's resilience during the bear market may have reduced whales' incentive to accumulate as heavily as they did in 2022 and 2023.

He also cautioned that falling activity does not guarantee further declines. Market trends can reverse once trading volume and interest reach low levels, Darkfost noted.

Reserves Rise While Binance Leverage Drops

CryptoQuant's report showed aggregate XRP exchange reserves at 11.81 billion tokens on October 17, a reading in the 99th percentile of the previous year. Binance's own reserves stood at 2.67 billion XRP, ranking at the 30th percentile of the exchange's yearly range.

Derivatives positioning moved in the other direction. Binance XRP open interest — the total value of derivative contracts still open on the venue — fell 15.8%, from $538.1 million on October 4 to $453 million on October 17. Long liquidations, the forced closure of leveraged long positions that reaches the market as sell orders, totaled $25.7 million on October 7–8, the largest two-day cluster of the previous two weeks, during which XRP fell from $1.52 to $1.29, a 15% decline.

Binance's leverage ratio dropped from 0.205 to 0.170 over the period, and funding — the periodic payment that keeps perpetual futures prices tethered spot — turned negative on six of 11 days, meaning longs paid shorts on those days. CryptoQuant said leverage had reset faster than exchange supply, leaving Binance with less derivatives exposure relative to its reserves than when the period began.

Inflows Continue as Whale Volume Slows

Binance recorded average net inflows of 9.3 million XRP per day over the past week, including inflows of 22 million and 29 million XRP on October 13 and 14, respectively — positive net inflows mean deposits outpaced withdrawals across the period. Over the same stretch, whale volume fell 44% week over week, while transferred tokens declined 37%.

CryptoQuant suggested that holders may have moved XRP onto exchanges for use as collateral or for hedging, although that explanation remains unverified. The reserve buildup also overlapped with the release of mid-October U.S. CPI data, a period in which rate expectations and the dollar index can influence crypto risk appetite. Upcoming readings of reserves, the 90-day outflow average, open interest and funding will show whether the current split between spot supply and derivatives exposure persists or narrows.