XRP Repeats 2022 Pattern After Rejection at 50-Week EMA

XRP has dropped below its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), fueling concerns that the token is building a lower price base reminiscent of the pattern it traced in 2022. The 50-week EMA is a widely followed long-term trend gauge that weights recent weekly closes more heavily, and moving averages on this timeframe are often treated by traders as a dividing line between broader bullish and corrective phases.

Analyst ChartNerd said XRP's latest decline followed its failure to reclaim $1.52, a level he had previously flagged as critical. He warned that XRP is likely to keep falling in the months ahead. In his view, the token has been rejected at the 50-week EMA, though he believes the outlook would improve if price moved back above that threshold.

Current Price Action

XRP is trading near $1.40, down 3.4% over the past 24 hours and 6.12% on the week. The token changed hands at $1.5222 two days ago, meaning it has lost roughly 8% since then.

Echoes of 2022

According to ChartNerd, XRP is displaying clear similarities to its 2022 price structure. In a September 29 post, he argued that XRP would form a higher low beneath the 50-week EMA before attempting a larger move higher, with an eventual target of $1.80–$2. At the same time, he cautioned that the token would first need to spend additional time trading below the weekly EMA. XRP had already been consolidating sideways under the 50-week EMA for roughly six weeks.

ChartNerd described the setup as a "higher low base" similar to the one XRP constructed in 2022, stressing that the pattern is not inherently bearish and may in fact prove constructive. In technical analysis, a higher low describes a pullback trough that forms above the preceding one — a structure often read as a sign that selling pressure is gradually fading, although pattern analogies to earlier market cycles do not guarantee a repeat.

A recent chart highlights the parallels between XRP's 2022 and 2026 price patterns. In both instances, the token slipped below a falling 50-week EMA and then began forming higher lows. The 2022 structure was ultimately followed by a major price increase. So far, XRP has not produced the same confirmation in the current cycle.

$1.52 Remains the Key Level

The 50-week EMA is the primary level on ChartNerd's radar. Having failed to move back above $1.52, XRP has since slid to around $1.40. ChartNerd expects the token to fall further and devote more time to building a new price base in the fourth quarter. Should XRP climb back above the 50-week EMA, however, his bullish stance would return, along with his earlier $1.80–$2 target.

Other Analyst Views

Other market watchers have also mapped out important levels for XRP. Ali Martinez sees a long-term bullish setup but says the token must first post a monthly close above $3.66 to confirm a breakout toward $9.49 — and potentially $31.87.

Peter Brandt, for his part, sees a possible move toward $2.16 based on an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. He nonetheless cautions that XRP faces strong resistance and selling pressure from the mid-$1.60s up to above $3.

Taken together, these views indicate that while several analysts remain constructive on XRP's longer-term potential, the cryptocurrency must first reclaim key resistance levels before a stronger recovery can be confirmed. Into the fourth quarter, the markers traders are watching include whether XRP can reclaim $1.52 and the 50-week EMA, whether higher lows continue to form beneath it, and — on higher timeframes — whether a monthly close above $3.66, the threshold cited by Martinez, comes into view.