XRP extended its recovery on Thursday after finding support at key technical levels, with the token changing hands near $1.30. The rebound, however, is not being uniformly confirmed by derivatives markets: conflicting funding rates, long-to-short positioning, and on-chain signals indicate that traders remain uncertain about whether the recovery can continue.

The token held above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, two widely watched trend-following indicators, while a daily close above the 200-day EMA at $1.353 is required to strengthen the recovery.

Mixed positioning in XRP derivatives

XRP's long-to-short ratio rose to 1.06 on Thursday, approaching its highest level in more than a month, according to CoinGlass, a derivatives data aggregator. A ratio above one means traders hold more long positions than short positions, signaling a moderately bullish positioning bias.

Funding rates — periodic payments exchanged between long and short futures traders — complicate the derivatives outlook. Funding applies to perpetual futures, the most heavily traded segment of the crypto derivatives market, which makes it a standard barometer of leveraged sentiment. XRP's funding rate turned negative on Wednesday and stood at -0.0040% on Thursday. Negative funding means short-position holders are paying longs, indicating that bearish positioning has become more aggressive.

That reading conflicts with XRP's bullish long-to-short ratio and highlights the lack of consensus among futures traders — a notable split in a market where crowded leveraged positions can amplify volatility when they unwind.

CryptoQuant, an analytics platform covering on-chain and derivatives activity, publishes summary indicators that likewise point to cautious conditions across XRP's spot and futures markets. The token is showing signs of overheating, while its futures market reflects sell-side dominance. Increased activity from retail traders could also introduce additional volatility if leveraged positions become crowded.

Taken together, the metrics suggest that XRP has not yet attracted enough consistent demand to confirm a sustained recovery. Until funding and positioning point in the same direction, the derivatives side of the market offers little confirmation of the price rebound.

XRP holds above the $1.25–$1.28 support zone

XRP traded near $1.30 on Thursday, maintaining a neutral and range-bound technical structure. The token remains slightly above its 50-day EMA at $1.284 and its 100-day EMA at $1.255. These moving averages create a broader demand zone between approximately $1.25 and $1.28.

Momentum indicators remain subdued. The Relative Strength Index stands near 46, signaling neutral-to-weak momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains below zero, showing that bullish pressure has yet to fully recover.

A break below the moving-average support cluster could expose the psychological $1 level, a round-number threshold that tends to attract outsized attention in crypto markets.

On the upside, the 200-day EMA at $.353 represents XRP's most important near-term resistance. The 200-day moving average is one of the most closely watched long-term trend gauges in technical analysis, and practitioners generally look for a confirmed daily close above such a level, rather than an intraday move, before treating a trend as changed. A daily close above this level would improve the technical outlook and could open a path toward the next major horizontal resistance near $1.90. Conversely, failure to clear $1.353 would keep XRP trapped within its current range and leave the $1.30 area vulnerable to another pullback.

For now, whether XRP can secure a daily close above $1.353 is likely to determine whether the recovery extends or the token remains confined to its established range. Alongside that close, the direction of funding rates and the integrity of the $1.25–$1.28 demand zone are the clearest near-term readouts of whether derivatives positioning and price action begin to align.

Originally reported by CoinJournal.