Ripple may be showing one of the sharpest divergences among large-cap cryptocurrencies.

According to a recent Blockworks report, $XRP posted one of its strongest second-quarter setups in terms of on-chain fundamentals. However, that strength did not carry over into price action, creating a clear gap between fundamentals and technical performance that could influence $XRP's third-quarter outlook.

The report said $XRP's positive trend was driven mainly by growth in stablecoins and tokenization. Total supply rose 195.4% to $825.5 million, while tokenized real-world asset (RWA) value climbed 102.5% to $4.46 billion — a notable data point given that tokenized RWAs, traditional instruments such as funds represented on-chain, have become one of crypto's fastest-growing sectors, with major asset managers including BlackRock and Franklin Templeton issuing tokenized funds. In addition, $XRP exchange-traded products (ETPs), which let traditional-finance investors gain exposure to the token through standard brokerage accounts, recorded inflows of $253.6 million, adding to the asset's momentum.

The central issue is that this liquidity growth has not been reflected in network utility — the payments volume, transaction counts, and active addresses widely used to gauge how much a blockchain is actually used.

The report said $XRP's total payment volume fell 26.6% from the previous quarter. Transaction counts and active addresses also declined this year, alongside lower decentralized exchange (DEX) volume. This came despite average transaction costs of just $0.00024, which is close to zero.

As a result, the market appears to have underestimated the asset's potential, even as $XRP declined 22% quarter over quarter. The question now is whether the same pattern will repeat in the third quarter and push Ripple [ $XRP ] into another second-quarter-style underperformance.

$XRP's third-quarter setup is starting to resemble Q2

Ripple's $RLUSD, a US dollar-backed stablecoin launched in late 2024, is emerging as a bridge between the XRP Ledger's (XRPL) second- and third-quarter performance.

According to DeFiLlama, $RLUSD's market capitalization has risen by nearly 40%, reaching almost 90% of XRPL's stablecoin market cap, with an aggregated supply of more than $880 million. The token also accounts for nearly 62% of tokenized assets on the $XRP Ledger, which increased by almost 25% in the third quarter and contributed to the total RWA value.

In practice, $RLUSD appears to be a major growth driver for XRPL as rising liquidity supports tokenization on the $XRP Ledger. But the network's actual use remains weaker than in the previous quarter. The chart referenced in the source shows that total transactions in the third quarter currently stand at 87 million, far below the 222 million recorded in Q2.

That means stablecoin liquidity and tokenization are expanding, while network utility continues to lag. The result is a mixed picture that resembles $XRP's second-quarter performance, and the token is facing a similar technical setup in the third quarter.

The bearish trend is visible in $XRP's price action, with the token falling more than 3.7% to a new quarterly low of $0.98 at the time of writing. The underlying argument points to a disconnect between fundamentals and technicals, with the market still sidelined on Ripple's undervaluation.

If that gap persists through the rest of the third quarter, $XRP could be headed for another red quarter, adding pressure to its post-election gains — the rally that followed the November 2024 US election. The data to watch for the rest of the quarter is whether $RLUSD keeps expanding and whether XRPL transaction counts close any of the gap with Q2's 222 million.