XRP hovered near $1.30 on Thursday, October 15, as the token tested its 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) and traders weighed the risk of a weekly breakdown. The token changed hands around $1.32 earlier in the session before sliding toward $1.29, and recent weekly estimates place the moving average at roughly $1.29–$1.30, down from about $1.34 earlier in the year.

A sustained weekly close below that moving average could expose XRP to further losses toward $1, while the 50-week EMA near $1.52 stands as the key barrier to any stronger recovery. Analyst Ali Charts has also flagged $1.25 as a potential rebound level amid continued selling pressure.

Weekly Close Carries the Weight

The 20-week average tracks roughly five months of trading and gives greater weight to recent prices, which is why traders use it to assess medium-term support. A brief dip below the line does not by itself confirm a weekly breakdown — the weekly close matters more. Repeated closes beneath the average would point to persistent selling pressure.

The test follows a stretch of weakness for XRP. Despite recent inflows into spot XRP exchange-traded funds, the token has struggled to recover its earlier levels. Funds received about $11.3 million over five trading days through October 9, according to fund trackers — inflows that have so far failed to lift the price.

Short-Term Charts Show Further Selling

Thursday's price action also broke a rising daily trendline. The daily relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge, approached 35 — a reading that signals weak momentum without confirming an immediate recovery.

On X, analyst Ali Charts said XRP could revisit $1.25, the lower edge of a parallel channel on his hourly chart. He identified that area as a possible rebound point, not a confirmed floor.

XRP REBOUND INCOMING!? $XRP appears to be trading inside a parallel channel on the hourly chart. This structure suggests XRP could still drop toward the lower boundary around $1.25 before seeing a meaningful rebound. That's the level I'm watching for a potential buying… pic.twitter.com/Et9Q11p08w

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 15, 2026

Broader market selling has added to the pressure. Crypto liquidations reached $959 million over 24 hours, most of them from leveraged bets on rising prices — positions that exchanges close automatically once losses exhaust their margin, a mechanism that converts falling prices into additional sell orders. Earlier XRP liquidation data showed sellers pressing the token below previous support levels.

$1 Downside Risk Meets $1.52 Resistance

If XRP closes the week below its 20-week average, traders may turn their attention toward $1. That zone supported prices during an earlier 2026 decline, and round-number levels like $1 are often treated as psychological support in crypto markets. A drop from $1.30 to $1 would equal roughly 23%.

Even if support holds, XRP would still face the 50-week exponential moving average near $1.52. Like the 20-week line, it gives greater weight to recent prices, but it spans roughly a year of trading, making it a reference point for the longer weekly trend. Buyers would need to push the price above that level to improve the weekly trend. The token previously met resistance there after approaching $1.70.

Meanwhile, Thursday's $1.25 support analysis identifies another level between the current price and $1. It places the broader buying area at $1.25–$1.30, a range that overlaps with the weekly support test.

For now, the weekly candle remains unfinished, and traders are waiting for the close to determine whether XRP can defend support or face deeper selling. Where the candle settles relative to the $1.29–$1.30 zone will help decide whether the latest decline leaves XRP above its weekly trend support — or shifts attention toward $1.