XRP surged 8.7% on Monday, leaving the OG altcoin priced at $1.49 and entangled with a crucial bubble — the lower boundary of a resistance channel recently flagged by analyst Egrag Crypto. The move places the token directly beneath a confluent resistance band that could decide whether XRP extends its rally toward $2 or slides into the corrective scenario the analyst has outlined. Zones like this draw outsized attention from traders because they mark price areas where prior advances stalled, turning the coming test into a reference point for how the chart resolves.

The Frenchman identified a confluent resistance area between $1.49 and $1.54, a zone XRP's price is potentially set to tackle in the near term. Under his scenario, breaking the zone and converting it into a fresh support level would activate his white-line trend projection, pushing XRP toward $1.64. Once that level is cleared, $2 becomes the next target.

Two Most Plausible Scenarios for XRP

In the bullish case, XRP would repeat its mid-August top candle, reaching between $1.65 and $1.70 during the run, according to multiple crypto price aggregators. Conversely, Egrag Crypto notes that if XRP's price fails to sustain itself above the $1.49–$1.54 resistance zone, there is a huge downward chop possibility toward $1.30–$1.10.

Egrag Crypto laid out both scenarios in a post on X shared on September 19, framing the test of the zone in straightforward terms:

"#XRP – MAJOR RESISTANCE IS APPROACHING ⚔️: #XRP is heading straight into a MAJOR resistance zone around $1.49–$1.54. For me, the setup is simple: BREAK IT + CONVERT IT INTO SUPPORT = WE'RE READY TO GO 🚀 But if ripple:native gets rejected again? Then expect more LINGERING /… pic.twitter.com/wTWkOVb1J1"

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) September 19, 2026

The white arrows on the analyst's chart project four previous rejections at that territory, underscoring how significant the zone has been for XRP's price history. Should the token fall into a "bull trap," two liquidity pockets await at $1.05 and $0.97. Such traps typically produce quick price rallies that get reversed within days, usually followed by an indication of slowing trading volume. That was not the case for XRP on Monday, however, with derivatives edging out spot markets.

Liquidity Piles Up on Derivatives With 22% Uptick

Spot traders have garnered $3.8 billion in daily trading volume, judging from SoSoValue's data. The bigger tell comes from derivatives: a 22% daily upswing in trading volume has pushed the total beyond $5.39 billion, while open interest (OI) — the total value of outstanding derivative contracts — has also soared by 12% to reach $3.42 billion, per CoinGlass' stats. Rising OI alongside a price climb generally points to fresh leveraged positions being opened rather than existing ones unwound. Short sellers have incurred $9.93 million in liquidations, with long positions liquidated to the tune of $1.59 million. Liquidations occur when exchanges force-close leveraged positions that can no longer meet margin requirements, and the skew toward shorts lines up with an upward session.

The numbers indicate that Monday's rally is being traded largely in leveraged markets, with derivatives volume now outpacing spot activity on the day. That split matters for interpretation: leverage-heavy sessions tend to move faster in both directions, and the liquidation figures offer a running gauge of how those leveraged bets are holding up.

If XRP's bulls manage to push the price above $1.54, the next resistance bubble to watch spans $1.64–$1.70. Analysts are setting expectations for a $2 XRP price rally in the near term, but most of today's market gains are directly tied to BTC price correlation — a linkage that leaves XRP's near-term path dependent on broad-market conditions as much as on its own chart. XRP and major-cap altcoins are riding along the bullish wave as the apex asset crosses $84,000 for the first time since January. In practical terms, the checkpoints from here are whether XRP can hold ground above the $1.49–$1.54 band, whether that zone flips into support as Egrag Crypto's framework requires, and whether derivatives flow keeps pace — with the analyst's $1.30–$1.10 range as the marker if the zone rejects price again.