XRP has settled near $1.25 after a sharp late-October decline, and its four-hour Bollinger Bands have compressed to their tightest levels since August — a squeeze that previously preceded a 71% rally over three days. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified $1.27 and $1.23 as the key price levels to watch, while on-chain data from Santiment shows a November 1 spike in new wallet creation.

Volatility Falls After October Selloff

XRP traded above $1.35 in late October before sellers drove the price toward $1.20. The decline gave way to several days of small price changes near $1.25, and recent four-hour candles have stayed close together, with fewer large swings than those recorded during the selloff.

The quieter trading has pulled the Bollinger Bands closer together. The indicator — a staple of technical analysis — places upper and lower bands around a moving average to track price volatility: wider bands accompany larger price swings, while narrower bands reflect smaller movements. Martinez said the latest contraction matches levels last recorded in August on the four-hour timeframe.

The bands have continued to narrow as XRP trades around their central line. The lower band widened during the October decline before moving upward again, while the upper band has moved lower. Both changes have reduced the distance between the bands as November begins.

August Squeeze Preceded a 71% Rally

XRP gained roughly 71% over three days after the previous period of unusually tight Bollinger Bands in August. Martinez's latest analysis, shared on X, compares that earlier setup with the current four-hour reading, focusing on the reduction in volatility that preceded the price movement.

The August rally does not, however, establish a target for the current market. Tight bands can precede a rapid increase or another decline, and the squeeze itself does not set a direction for the token. XRP has also entered this squeeze after losing ground in late October. With each of Martinez's thresholds sitting roughly 1.6% from the recent price, the setup leaves little room before one side or the other is tested. The next move will depend on whether buyers push the token above resistance or sellers break nearby support.

$1.27 Resistance in Focus

Martinez placed the upper boundary at $1.27. Under his bullish condition, XRP would need to finish a four-hour candle above that level; a brief move through $1.27 during a session would not satisfy the requirement. Four-hour charts produce six candle closes per day, so the condition can be confirmed or dismissed on a fixed schedule rather than at any moment of trading. From the recent price of $1.25, the threshold stands about 1.6% higher.

A confirmed breakout would bring $1.30 into focus. XRP traded around that price before the October decline, making the area a nearby resistance level, with the $1.34 region sitting further above. Both levels could become relevant if buyers maintain momentum after a breakout. Until XRP closes above $1.27, the market has not produced an upside signal.

Network Growth Rises While $1.23 Support Remains Critical

The opposite price test sits at $1.23, roughly 1.6% below the recent $1.25 price. A four-hour close under that level would meet Martinez's bearish condition and shift attention toward $1.20. XRP briefly traded near that region during the latest decline, so a breakdown would bring an earlier low back into focus.

Meanwhile, network activity has increased while the price has remained under pressure. On-chain analytics firm Santiment reported on X that 7,934 newly created XRP Ledger wallets were recorded on November 1, marking the sixth-largest daily network growth increase of 2026. A later reading on the network growth chart showed about 4,100 new wallets. Network growth is among the on-chain metrics analysts track alongside price when gauging participation in a ledger.

The increase followed the reported Binance hack, although the figures do not establish a direct connection between the two events. New wallet addresses do not necessarily represent new users: one person can create several wallets, and higher wallet creation does not confirm additional XRP purchases. Whether the elevated creation pace persists will be visible in subsequent Santiment readings.

Source: The Market Periodical