XRP traded near $1.29 on Monday and has fallen about 17% over the past month, as data showed fewer large-holder wallets and higher exchange balances — two metrics traders often use to gauge potential selling pressure. Analysts are watching near $1.26 while other indicators point to continued selling pressure.

Santiment data showed that the number of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP fell from 351 to 339, a decline of 12 wallets. At Monday’s price, positions in that band are worth roughly $12.9 million to $129 million. Analyst Ali Martinez, who posts as Ali Charts, shared the data on October 25 and warned that XRP could fall to $0.98 if large holders continue selling.

XRP WILL DROP TO $0.98 IF WHALES KEEP SELLING 1/5 🧵👇 — Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 25, 2026

https://x.com/alicharts/status/2114304587280896055?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Exchange balances increased from about 11.003 billion XRP to 11.05 billion XRP, a rise of roughly 47 million tokens. At a price of $1.30, the increase represented approximately $61.1 million. Exchange balances draw scrutiny because tokens held on trading venues are readily available to sell, so a sustained build-up is often read as a growing pool of potential supply.

Support at $1.26 in focus

Martinez identified a descending channel — a chart pattern of lower highs and lower lows — that has guided XRP since August and placed its lower boundary at $1.26. XRP dipped below that level on October 24 before recovering. He said a sustained break below the support could expose XRP to $1.11, followed by $0.98.

Analyst Dark Defender offered a different technical outlook in a post on X. He said XRP’s Wave 1 began in November 2024 and that Wave 3 is targeting $10.1101. He identified support levels at $1.21 and $1.12. Natasha cited $1.20 as the next support, while EGRAG CRYPTO flagged $1.24.

Technical indicators were also tilted toward sellers. The relative strength index stood at 39.17, below the 50 level that generally divides bullish from bearish momentum readings, while the MACD line was at -0.0344, below its signal line.

Exchange flows and ETF demand

CryptoQuant data showed that 6.05 billion XRP entered exchanges during the 30 days through October 19, the highest amount in seven months. Those gross inflows were larger than the increase recorded in exchange balances.

Analyst Darkfost reported that the 90-day average of large XRP withdrawals from Binance had fallen to $49.7 million, its lowest level in five years. He wrote that XRP could lack buying volume without support from large holders.

In Nov 2024, #XRP set Wave 1 on the left. White Sub-Waves 1 & 2 & EMA lines match Oct 2024. Wave 3 is targeting $10.1101. Supports: $1.21, $1.12 pic.twitter.com/Y16yJ3kJOl — Dark Defender (@DefendDark) October 25, 2026

https://x.com/DefendDark/status/2114346749968158975?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded no net flows on October 23, after receiving about $3.55 million on October 22. Cumulative net inflows remained close to $1.8 billion. Daily flows into spot ETFs are widely tracked as a measure of institutional demand for a token through regulated vehicles.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Spot $XRP ETFs pull in $4.26 million this week, flipping back to inflows after their first weekly outflow in 13 weeks. pic.twitter.com/TUJ2E3M2Oj — Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) October 25, 2026

https://x.com/WhaleInsider/status/2114312834905518587?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Other data points were stronger. Santiment reported a record 8.24 million non-empty XRP Ledger wallets, including 4,772 new addresses in a single day. Address growth is often used as a rough proxy for on-chain adoption. The firm said a move above resistance accompanied by at least 4,000 new wallets per day could support a recovery toward $1.50. Chart resistance was identified at $1.35 and $1.40.

XRP traded between $1.26 and $1.31 on Sunday, with daily volume near $1.33 billion. Its market capitalization was about $82.33 billion, ranking it fifth among cryptocurrencies. Ripple’s Swell conference, the company’s annual gathering traditionally used to showcase product and partnership announcements, is scheduled to run in New York from October 27 to 29, giving market participants a near-term event to watch. XRP was trading near $1.29 on Monday.