XRP is holding near $1.25 as tightening Bollinger Bands, accelerating wallet creation, and cooling network activity shape its latest market outlook. On November 3, 2026, the cryptocurrency traded at $1.248, below two major moving averages, leaving analysts focused on $1.23 and $1.27 as the confirmation levels for its next directional move.

XRP's four-hour Bollinger Bands have tightened to their narrowest levels since August, with $1.27 and $1.23 marking the bullish and bearish confirmation thresholds. Santiment recorded 7,934 new XRP wallets on November 1, the sixth-highest daily total of 2026. The token also remains below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $1.27 and $1.36, with immediate support at $1.22–$1.25.

Traders Watch $1.23 and $1.27 Breakout Levels

According to analyst Ali Charts, XRP's four-hour Bollinger Bands have narrowed to their tightest levels since August. Bollinger Bands measure how far price has stretched from its average over a set window, so tightening bands are a read on compressed volatility rather than a directional signal on their own. A previous episode of similar compression preceded a 71% rally within three days, although the current squeeze does not establish which direction the next move will take.

In a post on X, Ali Charts identified $1.27 as the bullish confirmation level and $1.23 as the bearish level. A four-hour close above $1.27 would support an upward move, while a close below $1.23 would indicate further downside pressure. Until either level breaks, the analyst considers the $1.23–$1.27 range a no-trade zone.

Santiment Reports 7,934 New XRP Wallets

Meanwhile, Santiment Intelligence reported 7,934 new XRP wallets on November 1, representing the sixth-highest daily total recorded in 2026. Notably, the increase occurred on a Sunday, typically one of the quieter days for cryptocurrency network activity.

Santiment noted that the surge followed a busy week and came after the Binance hack. The incident may have encouraged users to move toward self-custody and create new wallets. Wallet creation is one of the on-chain metrics analysts watch as a gauge of net new participation in a network, which is why an uptick in wallets during a price lull is being read together with the chart levels rather than in isolation.

The analytics platform identified $1.25 as XRP's immediate price pivot and $1.30 as the first confirmation level. Daily wallet creation staying above 4,000 alongside a recovery above $1.30 would strengthen the setup, while a drop below $1.20 combined with wallet growth under 3,000 would weaken it.

XRP Remains Below Major Moving Averages

The daily chart shows XRP declining from approximately $1.40–$1.45 in May before approaching $0.98 in August. The token subsequently recovered above $1.50, reaching approximately $1.60 in late September, before October brought another decline that left XRP consolidating around $1.24–$1.25.

The 50-day moving average stands near $1.27, while the 200-day average sits around $1.36. XRP currently trades below both levels. Moving averages smooth price data over a set window and are widely used as trend references, so trading below both means XRP has yet to reclaim levels often cited as trend-confirmation marks. Daily active addresses have declined to approximately 30,400 following an extraordinary late-August spike, even as total holders have risen to approximately 8.29 million. That combination — a growing holder base alongside cooling daily activity — offers no clean momentum signal on its own, which is a key reason both Ali Charts and Santiment tie their scenarios to specific confirmation levels rather than outright directional calls.

Immediate support is located at $1.22–$1.25. A breakdown could expose $1.20 and $1.10, while a recovery above $1.27 could bring $1.30 and $1.36 into focus. Taken together, the compressed volatility bands, elevated wallet creation, and the level map above give observers a concrete checklist for judging how the current consolidation phase plays out.