XRP is trading at $1.06, down nearly 8% over the past week.

The move comes as the U.S. Senate shelved the Clarity Act ahead of its August recess and global markets positioned for the Federal Reserve’s July 29 rate decision. That combination leaves XRP caught between a near-term policy event that can sway risk appetite across crypto and a legislative process that, if delayed, could push a major regulatory catalyst well out of reach for this year.

XRP’s technical picture is broadly bearish. The token has a confirmed death cross, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 40.9, Squeeze momentum is negative, and the composite score is -63%. The main technical cushion is that XRP is deeply oversold.

The broader macro backdrop has also been unfavorable for crypto markets. New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, in only his second FOMC meeting, is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%. However, CME FedWatch showed hike odds near 38% as recently as last weekend, the highest level of this cycle. Even a hawkish hold could pressure risk assets. Bitcoin is trading near $63,400–$64,000, well below its June highs around $80,000, and altcoins are bearing much of the decline.

XRP, the cryptocurrency developed by the founders of payments company Ripple, briefly gained momentum earlier this month. As Decrypt reported on July 21, the token rose 3.25% to $1.1485 after reports that President Donald Trump had agreed to the Clarity Act’s long-stalled ethics provision. That development briefly lifted Senate passage odds on Polymarket to 43%. The optimism lasted about a week.

On Monday, the Senate formally shelved the Clarity Act to prioritize a Russia sanctions bill and federal nominations. The chamber’s August recess begins around August 7, leaving a narrow window for the legislation to advance this year. If that deadline passes, the next opportunity may not arrive until 2027.

For XRP, the stakes are clear. The Clarity Act would codify its commodity classification into law, providing the legal foundation that institutional custodians, banks, and ETF issuers would need to feel comfortable building products around it. Standard Chartered’s conditional $8 XRP target, which depends on full Senate passage and $4 billion to $8 billion in new ETF inflows, remains theoretical without the bill.

XRP price: What the charts say

XRP is trading at $1.0641 on Binance, with a market capitalization of roughly $65 billion. The token has ranged between a 24-hour low of $1.0450 and a high of $1.0679. XRP peaked near $3.40 in mid-2025 and has remained in a sustained descending channel since then, posting lower highs and lower lows for months.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, is at 11.2, one of XRP’s weakest readings this summer. ADX measures trend strength on a scale from 0 to 100, regardless of direction. In practical terms, it reflects market conviction: readings below 25 indicate no confirmed trend, while readings below 20 are often associated with choppy, directionless trading and frequent false breakouts.

As Decrypt noted on July 16, when the reading was 13.3, XRP has spent much of July in this trendless range. One slightly constructive sign is that the directional indicator is beginning to rotate from DI- (bearish dominance) toward DI+ (bullish pressure building).

The Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, continue to point lower. The 50-day EMA remains below the 200-day EMA in what traders call a death cross. When the shorter average stays beneath the longer one, it signals that the medium-term trend remains downward, even if short-term bounces appear. This pattern has been in place since XRP’s decline from its $3.65 all-time high, and there is no indication yet that the two averages are converging.

The RSI is 40.9. RSI is a momentum indicator that runs from 0 to 100, with readings above 70 considered overbought and readings below 30 considered oversold. At 40.9, XRP remains in bearish territory, below the neutral 50 level, but it has not yet reached the extreme oversold zone that typically draws aggressive dip buyers.

On the Fibonacci side, the current bearish leg runs from $1.1646 down to $1.0450. Below that level, the next Fibonacci support sits at $1.0125, followed by $0.9711.

What happens next

Two developments are likely to shape XRP’s next move. If Fed Chair Warsh holds rates and signals a dovish tone, or hints at September cuts, crypto could see a relief rally and XRP may test the Fibonacci golden zone between $1.10 and $1.12. If the statement is hawkish, or if there is a dissenting vote, the sell-off could extend toward $1.01 and then the $0.97 area.

The Clarity Act is the larger long-term variable. The Senate’s August recess begins August 7. If a floor vote does not happen before then, XRP’s main institutional catalyst could disappear until at least late 2026, and possibly longer given the election calendar that follows.

The technical setup suggests patience rather than urgency. A market this trendless — with ADX at 11.2, negative Squeeze momentum, and a death cross still in place — can remain compressed longer than many traders expect before breaking out of its range. Oversold readings could support a short-term bounce, but without a macro catalyst or a legislative surprise, that bounce is more likely to be sold than to mark the start of a new trend.

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.