XRP Price Faces Fresh Warning: Could a Break Below $1.16 Trigger a Crash to $1?
Key Takeaways
- •Investors are evaluating how Democratic control of both chambers of the US Congress could affect cryptocurrency and AI regulation, with stricter oversight concerns weighing on crypto markets.
- •XRP closed below its 200-day EMA and trades below $1.20, with the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs clustered between $1.320 and $1.375 reinforcing the bearish bias.
- •Momentum indicators point to continued selling pressure, with the RSI near 35 below the neutral 50 level and the MACD beneath its zero line.
- •Immediate resistance sits at $1.257 along the descending channel's upper boundary, followed by the psychological $1.300 level and the EMA cluster at $1.320–$1.375.
- •A daily close below the $1.160 support could accelerate selling and expose the psychological $1.000 downside target if the current bearish structure persists.
XRP is facing renewed selling pressure toward the end of the week as investors assess the potential implications of Democratic control of both chambers of the US Congress for cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence (AI) regulation. Concerns over a potentially stricter regulatory environment have added to broader market uncertainty, weakening investor confidence and limiting recovery attempts across major cryptocurrencies.
The token's technical outlook has deteriorated after XRP closed below its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a widely monitored indicator of longer-term market direction. The breakdown suggests sellers are gaining control, increasing the risk of further losses if buyers fail to reclaim the key moving average.
XRP and Other Major Cryptocurrencies Underperform
Other leading cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, are also struggling to sustain their recent recovery, with repeated rejections at important resistance levels reinforcing bearish momentum. XRP, meanwhile, remains under pressure as it trades below major moving averages and faces resistance from a descending price channel.
The weakness across major cryptocurrencies suggests the broader market remains vulnerable to additional corrections, particularly if regulatory concerns and selling pressure in US technology stocks persist. For now, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP must reclaim their respective resistance zones to signal a meaningful recovery, while continued trading below these levels could expose further downside targets.
Bears Target $1.16 as Recovery Stalls
XRP remains under bearish pressure on Friday, trading below $1.20 as buyers struggle to regain control of the short-term trend. The token continues to trade below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, clustered between $1.320 and $1.375, reinforcing the broader downside bias.
XRP has also failed to break above the upper boundary of a descending channel, currently positioned near $1.257. This resistance has repeatedly limited recovery attempts, suggesting that sellers remain active during price rebounds.
Momentum indicators support the cautious outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum gauge measured on a scale from 0 to 100, stands near 35 — below the neutral 50 level, though still above the 30 mark conventionally treated as oversold — indicating that bearish momentum continues to dominate. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has dropped below its zero line, the boundary between positive and negative momentum, signaling strong selling pressure and limited evidence of a sustained bullish reversal.
Key Resistance Levels
On the upside, XRP faces immediate resistance at $1.257, corresponding to the descending channel's upper trendline. A decisive breakout above this level could open the door to a retest of the psychological resistance at $1.300, a round-number level where trader attention tends to concentrate. However, buyers would encounter stronger resistance around the 100-day EMA at $1.320 and the 50-day EMA at $1.326. A sustained move above these closely positioned indicators would be an early indication that bearish pressure is easing.
Beyond this zone, the 200-day EMA at $1.375 represents another important hurdle. A broader recovery could subsequently bring the $1.540 and $1.900 resistance levels into focus, although reaching these targets would require a significant improvement in market momentum.
Downside Risks
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.160. A daily close below this level could accelerate selling pressure and expose the psychological $1.000 support, which represents a critical downside target if the current bearish structure persists.
XRP's inability to reclaim the descending channel resistance and its major moving averages suggests that sellers retain the upper hand. Unless the token establishes a sustained recovery above $1.320–$1.375, short-term rebounds are likely to remain corrective moves within the prevailing downtrend.
Disclosure: AI tools assisted with research and drafting of this piece. An Invezz editor reviewed the facts, sources and wording before publication. Any opinions or analysis are Invezz's, not those of an automated system. Source: Invezz
