XRP is trading near $1.03, and one technical analyst argues the token is quietly repeating the same multi-year structure that preceded its historic 2017 breakout.

In a recent analysis, Julia (@Julia_Liberte) highlighted a long-term ascending support trendline that XRP has respected since its early days. The same pattern appeared before the 2017 rally, when the token surged more than 60,000–70,000% from its lows. According to Julia, the current setup is approaching its third major retest of that trendline — the point that historically marked the beginning of the expansion phase.

$XRP is repeating the exact same trendline from 2017. History is repeating itself. Right before the 70,000% explosion. The path to the next bull run: Scenario 1: (AUG-SEP) $1.10 → $0.97 → $1.80 Scenario 2: (NOV-DEC) $1.80 → $2.70 → $3.20 Scenario 3: (JAN-FEB)… pic.twitter.com/e4JhRDAykp
— Julia (@Julia_Liberte) August 9, 2026

The Three-Step Roadmap

The analyst laid out a clear, staged path with three scenarios:

Scenario 1 (Aug–Sep): $1.10 → $0.97 → $1.80

A near-term dip toward the high $0.90s is expected to complete the current retest, followed by a recovery pushing XRP back above $1.80.

Scenario 2 (Nov–Dec): $1.80 → $2.70 → $3.20

If the first recovery holds, the next leg would target the previous cycle highs and slightly beyond.

Scenario 3 (Jan–Feb): $3.20 → $6.50 → $13.00

This represents the final expansion phase, where the structure fully unlocks and XRP makes a substantially larger move.

According to the analysis, once the third retest of the multi-year support successfully holds, the expansion phase begins.

Why the Comparison Draws Attention

The XRP price chart overlay shows striking similarities between the 2014–2017 accumulation period and the structure that has been building since roughly 2020. In both cases, the price created a higher-low trendline, retested it multiple times, and only after the third successful defense did meaningful upside acceleration begin.

The current consolidation also follows a period of significant regulatory overhang for XRP. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's case against Ripple — filed in December 2020 — constrained the token's price action for years, with XRP delisted from several major U.S. exchanges shortly after the lawsuit began. While Ripple secured partial court victories in 2023 affirming that XRP itself is not a security in programmatic sales, the token has continued to underperform relative to its prior cycle peaks, reflecting the prolonged impact of that legal uncertainty on institutional participation.

Separately, Cryptoinsightuk (@Cryptoinsightuk) noted on August 11, 2026:

ripple:native is moving into that $1 liquidity right now, but instead of OI starting to close out and decrease, it's ramping up. I feel some volatility is coming, some big volatility. pic.twitter.com/tQra0laybs
— Cryptoinsightuk (@Cryptoinsightuk) August 11, 2026

The observation about rising open interest near the $1 level is worth noting alongside the trendline analysis: when open interest increases at a major support zone, it can amplify price moves in either direction once a breakout or breakdown occurs.

Fractal analysis, while visually compelling, does not guarantee future outcomes. Markets evolve, liquidity conditions differ across cycles, and regulatory or macroeconomic factors can override pure technical patterns. The 2017 rally, for instance, occurred during a broad-based crypto bull market with far fewer institutional participants and a different competitive landscape among payment-focused tokens. Nevertheless, the visual parallel remains notable for traders who track long-term cycle structures.

Currently, XRP remains well below its 2025 highs near $3.65 and has spent much of 2026 trending lower. Whether the level around $1.03 ultimately proves to be the final shakeout before a larger recovery — or simply another phase in a longer consolidation — will depend on whether that multi-year support continues to hold. Broader conditions, including the direction of Bitcoin, overall crypto market liquidity, and any further developments in Ripple's regulatory and business landscape, will also play a role in determining the token's trajectory.

For now, the analyst's message is straightforward: bookmark the chart and revisit it in a few months. If the third retest holds, the historical pattern may be setting up for another significant move.

Source: DailyCoin