XRP climbed to $1.54 during a broader market rebound, leaving the token about 10% higher over the week, as two nearby levels come into focus: $1.50 support and $1.60 resistance. The move coincided with fresh crypto guidance from U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission staff and another day of net inflows into spot XRP exchange-traded funds.

On the four-hour chart, the token eased to $1.5535 by 08:41 UTC on Saturday after touching $1.60 earlier in the week.

SEC Staff Guidance Follows CLARITY Act Setback

SEC staff published fresh crypto guidance on September 25, after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act earlier this month. The guidance addresses token buybacks, staking receipts, network maintenance, and promotional claims, but it does not classify XRP. With the bill stalled, the staff answers serve as the nearest available federal reference point on those questions while broader market rules remain unresolved.

The CLARITY Act's failure leaves proposed federal market rules unresolved. In the staff answers, the SEC addressed questions about digital assets under securities analysis. Staff said buybacks involving nonsecurity tokens on functional networks do not necessarily imply promised managerial work, and that certain staking receipts may qualify as digital tools or commodities, depending on their structure and issuance.

BREAKING: The SEC starts bringing crypto clarity after the CLARITY Act failed to pass.

Details include:

• Token buybacks on working protocols aren't seen as management

• Liquid staking tokens are digital commodities, not securities

• Maintenance, upgrades & grants… pic.twitter.com/PvERbcdWea

— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) September 26, 2026

https://x.com/cryptorover/status/2103674140871774430?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Staff also said routine upgrades and the promotion of existing uses may fall outside investment-contract analysis. The staff answers carry no legal force and leave XRP's regulatory status unresolved. For the XRP price outlook, the guidance adds context but offers no XRP-specific ruling.

Spot XRP ETFs Log $22.65 Million in Daily Inflows

Five U.S. spot XRP ETFs drew $22.65 million in net inflows on September 25. Bitwise led with $18.39 million, about 81% of the total, while Franklin Templeton's XRPZ received $4.26 million. Three other products recorded no net movement. That split makes upcoming daily flow readings a direct check on whether demand broadens beyond two products or stays concentrated.

Cumulative net inflows have reached $1.79 billion, and combined net assets stood at $1.77 billion, equal to 1.80% of XRP's market capitalization. The funds traded $57.75 million on the day, including $37.07 million from Bitwise.

The figures show inflows concentrated in two products, but they do not prove ETF purchases caused the weekly advance. ETF trading value is separate from net inflows. ETF demand adds context to the XRP price outlook, while Kalshi's September forecast stood at $1.70. Odds can shift.

$1.50 Support and $1.60 Resistance Frame the Near Term

On the four-hour chart, $1.60 marks immediate resistance after recent advances stalled there. A sustained move above it could put $1.65 and then $1.70 in focus. The $1.50 area steadied the pullback after 23, and a close below that support could expose $1.45 and weaken the short-term recovery. The near-term setup therefore hinges on these levels: after a 10% weekly gain, each one offers a defined test of whether the rebound holds.

The four-hour RSI was 52, just above its midpoint of 50, while the MACD line sat below its signal line, pointing to weaker short-term momentum. Buyers need to defend $1.50, and a move through $1.60 would test whether demand can extend the rebound. A brief break would not confirm a sustained breakout.

Monthly RSI Confirmation Still Pending

The monthly chart offers a longer-term comparison. XRP's RSI has returned to a lower range seen before two earlier advances, but it remains below its yellow moving-average line. The monthly confirmation condition is an RSI crossover above that average. The line has begun turning upward, though it has not crossed, and the monthly signal does not confirm four-hour momentum. The pending crossover is therefore the specific condition to track on coming monthly closes.

One earlier example shows XRP near $0.18 before it later reached almost $2. In another, it traded around $0.37 before advancing toward $3.30. Those changes equal roughly 11.11 times and 8.92 times their starting levels. Applying those multiples mechanically to $1.54 gives about $17.11 and $13.74, respectively. The comparisons describe past moves, not targets for this cycle, and the simple calculations use rounded historical prices.

XRP remains within long-term moving-average bands after its 2025 retreat. Similar RSI zones appeared around 2017 and 2021, but those setups began from different prices and market conditions. On the current monthly chart, XRP's RSI remains below its moving average, leaving the highlighted crossover unconfirmed.

Source: Blockonomi