Crypto analyst Dark Defender has identified a long-term technical structure that could see XRP significantly outperform Ether if the chart reaches its projected fifth-wave target. In a September 13 post on X, Dark Defender said XRP could eventually dominate Bitcoin and Ethereum.

However, the chart specifically measures XRP’s performance against Ether rather than forecasting an absolute price increase for XRP. The 10-day XRP/ETH chart places the ratio near 0.00055 and identifies the current formation as an Elliott Wave fourth-wave correction.

Dark Defender’s post is available on X.

The projected fifth wave extends toward 0.002238 ETH per XRP. From approximately 0.000551, that target would represent a relative gain of about 306%. The projection therefore describes XRP’s potential performance against Ether, not a fourfold increase in XRP’s dollar price.

XRP/ETH Ratio Defines the Relative-Performance Case

Independent market data broadly supports the chart’s starting point. Investing.com recorded the XRP/ETH ratio at 0.000539 on September 11, down from 0.000570 on September 8. The ratio consequently remained below several levels highlighted in Dark Defender’s technical structure.

The chart identifies intermediate Fibonacci levels near 0.0006487 and 0.0007773 before the larger 0.002238 extension. These levels provide measurable reference points for the relative-price setup, with the 0.0006487-to-0.0007773 zone representing the immediate area that the ratio would need to reclaim before the Wave 5 case strengthens.

The ratio can rise under several different market conditions. XRP could appreciate while Ether remains unchanged, or both assets could rise at different rates. The ratio could also increase if both assets decline but Ethereum falls faster. A higher XRP/ETH ratio therefore indicates relative strength rather than absolute price appreciation.

The 0.002238 target is approximately 4.06 times the chart’s 0.000551 level, producing the roughly 306% relative gain cited in Dark Defender’s forecast. The technical projection does not, by itself, establish that XRP will exceed Bitcoin or Ethereum in total market capitalization.

Market-Capitalization Gap Separates Relative Performance From a Flip

Recent market data placed XRP near $1.37, with approximately $86 billion in market capitalization and 62.87 billion tokens circulating. Ethereum traded near $2,458, with a market value of around $300 billion. Bitcoin remained substantially larger, at approximately $1.55 trillion in market capitalization while trading near $77,230.

Based on those figures, XRP’s market capitalization would need to reach roughly 3.5 times its current level to surpass Ethereum, assuming Ethereum’s valuation remained unchanged. Overtaking Bitcoin would require XRP’s market capitalization to increase to roughly 18 times its current valuation under the same assumption.

These comparisons illustrate why relative-price performance and market-cap rankings should be considered separately. Market capitalization equals an asset’s price multiplied by its circulating supply; it does not directly represent the amount of capital deposited into the asset. As a result, a $1 billion increase in valuation does not require $1 billion in inflows.

Institutional access has also expanded through U.S.-listed products. SEC filings show that the Bitwise XRP ETF and Canary XRP ETF hold XRP to provide regulated exposure. The relevant filings include Bitwise’s SEC filing and Canary’s SEC filing.

The technical call comes as global risk conditions have weakened. Investors recently withdrew $15.52 billion from equity funds amid rising oil prices and expectations of tighter policy.

For the relative-performance scenario, the immediate measurable range remains 0.0006487 to 0.0007773. The projected 0.002238 level is the analyst’s fifth-wave extension, not a confirmed market outcome. Monitoring the ratio against those intermediate levels would therefore help distinguish progress within the chart’s proposed structure from the longer-term target itself.

Source: Blockonomi