XRP derivatives open interest on Binance has fallen 28% since September 22, sliding to $445 million as the token's price declined 17% over the same period. The contraction has pulled open interest below its 180-day average of approximately $460 million, and analysts Darkfost and Ali Charts have highlighted the deleveraging alongside a technical buy signal. Both identified $1.25 as a critical support level, with potential price targets extending from $0.98 to $2.10.

Binance Open Interest Falls Below Its 180-Day Average

According to Darkfost, the drop in XRP open interest on Binance reflects a reduction in the value of outstanding derivatives positions. Open interest measures the total value of derivatives contracts still open on the exchange. Because it reflects outstanding leverage rather than spot trading volume, the metric is widely used by derivatives traders to gauge how much speculative positioning sits behind a token's price action. Darkfost attributed the contraction partly to the token's falling price, which erodes the value of existing positions, and noted that liquidations triggered by the sell-off added further downward pressure on the metric.

Darkfost described the deleveraging as a sign that pressure in XRP futures may be easing — a process that strips leverage out of the market as positions close, whether through exits or liquidations. In support of that view, he cited comparable episodes in mid-September and mid-August, which preceded rallies of 32% and 72%, respectively.

Ali Charts Points to Buy Signal at $1.25

Meanwhile, Ali Charts reported a buy signal from the TD Sequential indicator, a timing tool traders use to flag potential turning points after extended moves, on XRP's three-day chart, as shared in a post on X. The analyst noted that three previous signals preceded rebounds of 31%, 24%, and 18%.

Despite the signal, Ali Charts said XRP's next move depends heavily on whether $1.25 holds. If support remains intact, the token could rebound toward $1.40. Conversely, continued whale profit-taking combined with a break below the level could expose $0.98.

The analyst also identified a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on XRP's daily chart — a formation chartists monitor for possible trend reversals. Its prospective right shoulder sits near $1.25, making that level important to the pattern's development.

Resistance at $1.55 and $2.10

Beyond the initial rebound target, Ali Charts identified $1.55 as the neckline resistance of the potential pattern, the level typically required to confirm such a formation. A daily close above that level could open a path toward $2.10. However, failure to maintain $1.25 would weaken the setup and bring $0.98 back into focus.

Taken together, the levels outlined by the two analysts frame separate scenarios for XRP, depending on whether buyers defend support or sellers push prices lower. Darkfost's data likewise places current open interest below its six-month average following the recent contraction in derivatives exposure. Going forward, the observable markers are whether $1.25 holds, whether open interest stabilizes near its 180-day average, and whether a daily close reclaims $1.55 — the conditions each analyst tied to their respective scenarios.