XRP fell 15.7% in October, extending its fourth-quarter decline to 16.3% with one month of the quarter already completed. The token is trading around $1.25–$1.26 after slipping below the $1.30 support level, leaving its near-term direction uncertain as liquidity concerns build ahead of a scheduled Ripple escrow unlock.

Why XRP's Historical November Returns Can Be Misleading

The gap between XRP's average and median November performance shows how a small number of unusually strong years can distort seasonal statistics. According to CryptoRank, XRP's average November gain stands at 80.2%, but that figure is heavily skewed by a 531.9% rally in 2013 and a 281.7% gain in 2024.

The median November return, by contrast, is negative 10%, indicating that the typical historical outcome has been considerably weaker than the average implies. XRP has ended November lower in most market cycles, according to the source data.

Neither measure guarantees what happens next. The historical record spans only 13 observations, making it a limited sample, and XRP's market structure has changed. The launch of U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds in mid-November 2025 introduced an institutional demand channel that did not exist in earlier cycles, one that routes exposure to the token through regulated securities markets rather than crypto-native trading platforms.

October Decline Leaves XRP Under Pressure

XRP's recent weakness follows a 48% advance in the third quarter, its strongest third-quarter performance in four years. The October pullback may therefore reflect profit-taking after a substantial rally rather than seasonal forces alone.

The decline has also weakened the bullish momentum built around investor expectations. With XRP below the $1.30 support level, short-term traders may keep taking profits, adding selling pressure to a market the report describes as facing limited liquidity.

Taken together, the price weakness and shifting market conditions make historical November returns an unreliable standalone guide. The median offers a different perspective from the headline average, but neither statistic fully accounts for current liquidity, institutional flows, or broader market developments.

Ripple's Scheduled Escrow Unlock

Ripple is scheduled to unlock 1 billion XRP from its escrow wallets on Sunday, November 1. The monthly release has followed the same routine since 2017, and the full amount should not be treated as new circulating supply.

Ripple typically returns between 600 million and 800 million XRP to new escrow contracts, according to the report, which would put the net addition to circulating supply at approximately 200 million to 400 million XRP.

Even a smaller net release could weigh on prices if liquidity remains thin. The unlock comes amid broader macroeconomic pressure and the aftermath of forced liquidations of more than $1.29 billion in long positions, which the report links to a security incident at Binance.

Could a Short Squeeze Fuel a Rebound?

The liquidation wave may also have reduced excess leverage in the market, potentially creating conditions for a rebound. A short squeeze occurs when traders who had bet on falling prices are forced to buy back their positions as the market rises, amplifying the upward move. The report identifies a possible short squeeze as an alternative to the bearish outlook if funding rates remain negative and open interest fails to recover.

Under that scenario, XRP would be more likely to retest the $1.30–$1.32 range than historical seasonal statistics alone might suggest. That outcome, however, remains conditional on market positioning and funding conditions rather than a confirmed price direction.

XRP's November outlook therefore depends on more than its historical average return. The negative median, the token's recent decline, the upcoming escrow release, and the possibility of a short squeeze point to competing forces that could shape price action in the weeks ahead — with funding rates, open interest, the share of escrowed tokens returned to lockup, and the $1.30 level among the indicators that will show which of them prevails.

Source: U.Today. Reporting by Ethan Collins.