XRP is trading at $1.08, with a 24-hour range of $1.045 to $1.09 and a market capitalization of roughly $67 billion. The token is down nearly 4.5% over the past week.

The market is facing pressure from two fronts: the U.S. Senate has put its main regulatory catalyst on hold, while the Federal Reserve is set to make a rate decision on July 29, with hike odds at 38%, the highest reading of this cycle. For XRP, that combination matters because the token remains sensitive both to regulatory clarity and to broader risk appetite, and both have been in short supply this week.

XRP peaked near $3.40 in mid-2025 and has since posted lower highs and lower lows. That decline has formed a descending channel now reinforced by a confirmed death cross, an RSI of 40.9, and an ADX of 11.2, a reading that suggests momentum has largely faded.

The key question is whether a dovish Fed signal or a last-minute Senate floor vote emerges before August 7. If neither does, the technical setup points toward $1.0125 and then $0.9711.

CLARITY Act Delayed as Senate Prioritizes Other Legislation

Senate has put the CLARITY Act on hold for now, prioritizing floor time for a Russia sanctions bill instead. With the August 8 recess approaching, the window for a vote before then is narrowing fast. pic.twitter.com/5slDLkKcn2 — 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸XRP (@BankXRP) July 28, 2026

On July 28, the U.S. Senate shelved the CLARITY Act to focus on a Russia sanctions bill and a backlog of federal nominations, according to CoinDesk. With the Senate’s August recess beginning around August 7, time for a vote is limited, and the bill could be pushed into 2026 or 2027 because of the midterm election schedule.

The CLARITY Act is important for XRP because it would define the asset as a commodity under CFTC jurisdiction, a framework considered important for institutional custodians and banks building regulated products. Standard Chartered’s conditional $8 XRP price target depends on Senate approval and new ETF inflows, making the legislative delay relevant well beyond short-term trading.

The legislation passed the House as H.R. 3633 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee. A full Senate vote would require 60 votes, meaning 7 to 10 Democratic crossovers. Although a brief wave of optimism followed the possibility of resolving an ethics provision, recent developments suggest the upside may be overstated.

Fed Rate Decision Adds to Macro Pressure

( SOURCE: CMEGroup.com )

The July 29 FOMC meeting adds another layer of pressure. CME FedWatch shows hike odds at 38%, the highest level this cycle, while the base case remains a hold in the 3.50%–3.75% range under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Even without a rate increase, a hawkish hold could unsettle risk assets.

Bitcoin is trading around $63,400 to $64,500, well below June’s $80,000 highs, and altcoins including XRP have absorbed much of the weakness. A hawkish Fed statement could worsen market conditions, especially after the CLARITY Act delay, because it would remove one of the few near-term supports for speculative assets.

If the Fed signals a dovish stance and points to September cuts, XRP could move toward $1.10 to $1.12. If the statement is hawkish, XRP could fall toward $1.01 or even $0.9711. As of July 29, neither outcome has been resolved.

Technical Outlook Remains Bearish

$XRP is now at its most oversold levels ever. – Down 72% from its ATH. – It has hit a 2-year low near $1 last month. – Monthly RSI is now more oversold than during the 2020 COVID crash. Do you think the bottom is in? pic.twitter.com/jOV8xbk3gr — Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) July 28, 2026

XRP’s technical picture remains bearish, according to Decrypt on July 29. The death cross has been confirmed, with the 50-day EMA crossing below the 200-day EMA after XRP’s decline from its $3.65 all-time high.

The ADX reading of 11.2 points to weak momentum, and XRP has been largely trendless throughout July, which raises the risk of false breakouts. The composite technical score stands at -63%, while the RSI at 40.9 indicates bearish conditions without reaching extreme oversold territory.

The bearish Fibonacci leg spans $1.1646 to $1.0450, with support at $1.0125 and $0.9711. A limited positive sign is that the directional indicator is turning toward DI+, but a meaningful shift would require a macro catalyst.

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