XRP is approaching a critical support level amid its ongoing price decline, and its next move is likely to determine whether the token's broader bullish structure remains intact.

After months of uncertainty between bullish and bearish scenarios, XRP has moved closer to the bearish outcome. What once appeared to be the worst-case scenario in veteran crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto's projections has now become the market's current reality.

At press time, XRP trades around $1.10, placing it close to the $1.11–$1.07 support zone identified by the analyst, who considers this range the token's last major support area. Holding above it could preserve the broader market structure, while a breakdown could expose XRP to a deeper decline. Because support zones mark price areas where buying interest has historically outweighed selling pressure, how XRP behaves in this range gives traders a clear reference point for judging whether the long-term uptrend is still technically intact.

October Decline Raises More Concerns

XRP's weakness began in October, when the token closed the month down 16%. That marked its fourth-worst October performance since 2013. Only three years produced worse results: 2013, when XRP dropped 44.8%; 2018, when it lost 22.9%; and 2024, when it declined 16.6%.

Historical patterns add to the caution. Of the eight years in which XRP recorded a negative October, five were followed by another losing November — a failure rate of approximately 62% — indicating that the token has often struggled to recover after a weak October.

EGRAG had initially expected XRP to follow a different path. His preferred scenario called for a rebound from $1.18, which would have limited the correction and kept the broader bullish structure intact. However, XRP fell below that level without building a strong support base, pushing the token toward the $1.11–$1.07 range he had previously identified as its final major support zone.

Why XRP Must Defend $1.07

The $1.11–$1.07 range now stands as the most important support area for XRP. According to EGRAG, even a further decline toward the psychological $1.00 level would not necessarily end the token's long-term bullish outlook. XRP could reach $1.00 and still maintain its broader higher-low structure — the pattern of each pullback finding a floor above the previous one that technical analysts treat as the defining signature of an uptrend — which supports the bullish case on the long-term chart.

A daily candle close below $1.07, however, would be a much more serious development. Such a move would act as a major warning that XRP may be losing its broader market structure rather than simply experiencing another stage of its ongoing correction. A confirmed break below the level could change the outlook considerably, requiring traders to weigh the possibility of a deeper structural breakdown.

Mounting Pressure at Key Support

XRP's chart also shows signs of continued weakness. Since its late-September upward push, the token has formed lower rally peaks, suggesting that while buyers have attempted several recoveries, sellers have repeatedly taken control and pushed the price lower. XRP also remains below key moving averages, including the 100 EMA on the daily chart — an indicator that smooths the past 100 daily closes and is widely used to gauge the prevailing trend.

Institutional demand has slowed as well. XRP ETF net inflows reached only about $10 million by mid-October, compared with $121 million throughout September. Fund flows of this kind are commonly tracked as a barometer of institutional participation, so the sharp month-over-month drop underscores how much cooler appetite has become alongside the price weakness.

November's historical performance is another point of concern. Seven of XRP's 13 completed Novembers between 2013 and 2025 ended with losses, and the cryptocurrency recorded a median monthly return of -5.08% during those months.

Recovery Targets Stretch From $1.25 to $1.80

Despite the current market conditions, EGRAG has not changed his long-term position on XRP. The analyst said he continues to accumulate spot XRP at current prices while confirming that the cryptocurrency could experience further declines.

If XRP holds the current support zone and begins to recover, EGRAG identifies several price levels that could guide the next move. The first important target stands at $1.25, followed by $1.43. A break above $1.43 could open the way toward $1.63, while the final major target sits at $1.80 — a level that would confirm XRP has maintained its broader market structure despite the recent decline.

For now, however, XRP must first defend the $1.11–$1.07 support zone. The coming daily closes around $1.07 — and whether ETF inflows recover from October's pace — are the near-term markers traders can watch to gauge which of the analyst's scenarios the market ends up following.

The analysis was originally reported by The Crypto Basic.