XRP, the token tied to cross-border payments on the XRP Ledger, is hovering around $1.00, clinging to the dollar line it has defended since Donald Trump's win in the 2024 U.S. election. The daily chart remains bearish, and the weekly chart is now converging. With XRP deep in oversold territory — traders' shorthand for momentum readings that suggest an asset has fallen too far, too fast — the question for holders is whether a bounce is coming.

A bear market without a confirmed bottom

Crypto is grinding through what can be considered an extended bear market, with no confirmed bottom in sight. Bitcoin is down more than 3% this week and stuck below $64,000, while Ethereum is struggling to hold onto $1,900 as traders continue to debate when the slide actually ends. Altcoins like XRP have historically moved broadly in step with Bitcoin, which typically leaves them little room to recover while the market leader is still sliding.

Wall Street is having a completely different Monday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are hovering near recent highs, with AI stocks catching another bid after Bloomberg reported that Anthropic posted $11.5 billion in quarterly revenue and is now meeting banks about a possible IPO.

Crypto in general is starting the week mostly flat, with most coins in the top 10 moving less than 2% in either direction. For XRP, that is arguably a good thing considering how strong bears have been.

Defending the dollar for the 635th day

XRP is slightly up 1.11% today, trading around $1.0046 after opening at $0.9935 and dipping to an intraday low of $0.9882. It is a small bounce, but it matters. Round numbers such as $1 tend to act as psychological levels where orders from buyers and sellers cluster, which is part of why the streak draws so much attention.

XRP has closed above $1 every single day since November 2024, a streak that had reached 635 sessions as of last week. That streak has nearly snapped twice this month already.

The scare came in part from a bridge exploit that drained roughly $200,000 through a connection between the TX Chain and the XRP Ledger, pushing XRP briefly under $1 on August 11 and again on August 14. Buyers stepped back in before the daily close both times.

This week's chart shows the same story: XRP tagged $0.9862, a level last touched right before the November 2024 rally — the one traders took to calling the "Trump pump," since it followed Donald Trump's reelection — that eventually carried the token to an all-time high of around $3.65.

A death cross on the daily chart

On the daily chart, the technical damage is already done. XRP's 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is trading below its 200-day EMA. EMAs smooth out price action to reduce the noise seen in intraday sessions, and when the shorter-term average crosses below the longer-term average, it forms a pattern that traders refer to as a death cross. For XRP, it essentially confirms that sellers have run the short-to-medium-term trend for weeks. Death crosses are also lagging signals, typically forming well after a downtrend has begun, so traders read them as confirmation of weakness rather than a fresh forecast.

Zoom out to the weekly chart and the picture gets heavier. XRP's 50-week EMA is still trading above its 200-week EMA, meaning the golden-cross structure that has technically underpinned the entire post-election rally is still intact. But that gap has been closing for months, and the weekly Average Directional Index (ADX) now reads 33.7. ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction, and a reading above 25 signals a trend in place. At 33.7, the weekly ADX marks a genuinely strong trend — one pointed in the wrong direction for anyone long the token.

When a shorter-term EMA spends this long grinding toward a longer-term one from above, traders read it as a warning shot of an eventual cross, not a coincidence. Chart watchers have been tracking the setup on X.

Back on the daily chart, the ADX reads 21.8, just under the 25 level traders use to confirm real conviction. That means the decline is real, but no longer violent. The chart's own Fibonacci retracement — a natural set of supports and resistances that appear during a trend — shows XRP has not even reclaimed its shallowest retracement level at $1.0281. The so-called golden zone between $1.0754 and $1.0965 is still a long climb from here.

No help from the calendar

The calendar is not offering much help either. The Senate left for a five-week August recess without voting on the Clarity Act, pushing the crypto market structure bill's next realistic vote to September 15. The SEC abruptly pulled its own vote on new crypto-startup fundraising rules the same week, citing a scheduling issue.

For XRP, regulatory waiting is familiar ground. The SEC sued Ripple over the token in 2020, a 2023 court ruling found that programmatic XRP sales on exchanges were not securities offerings, and the case formally ended in 2025 after both sides dropped their appeals. A token whose U.S. legal status was shaped in courtrooms for half a decade now waits on congressional calendars.

The bear force is strong enough that Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick cut his 2026 XRP price target from $8 to $2.80 in the first quarter of 2026.

Whales have reportedly bought roughly 380 million XRP near the $1 level over the past week, but they are doing it alongside $1.5 billion in freshly opened leveraged long positions — the kind of positioning that turns an ordinary break below $1 into a faster, uglier one if it triggers forced liquidations.

Levels in focus

The most obvious resistance sits close to $1.07–$1.09 (the golden zone), with $1.1264 (the 78.6% Fibonacci level) in play if momentum is sustained. For support, $0.98 would be this week's low, while $0.9061 stands as major support as close to the $1 base as it could be.

The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.