XRP is trying to turn a sharp pullback into a launchpad. After climbing 71.8% from $0.988 to $1.698, the token has given back about 20% and is now sitting on a densely traded support band that analyst Ali Charts says will determine whether $2 remains in play.

The setup is straightforward: buyers built a heavy base just above $1.30, U.S. spot XRP ETFs continued adding during the dip, and the short-term chart is tightening. None of that guarantees a breakout, but it explains why the $1.31 to $1.38 range has become the level traders are watching. In a market where liquidity is clustering around a few well-defined levels, those pockets can matter because they show where previous buyers may defend their entries and where later rallies may run into supply.

A 4.8 Billion XRP Cushion Beneath the Market

On-chain cost-basis data is central to the thesis. Ali’s earlier URPD map flagged about 3.2 billion XRP changing hands between $1.35 and $1.38. The new thread expands that pocket: more than 4.8 billion XRP were previously acquired between $1.31 and $1.38.

That creates a large cluster of holders who are closer to breakeven than to a windfall. If the band holds, it could help absorb the correction. If it fails, the same coins that appear as demand on the way down can become overhead supply on the way back up.

2/5 ripple:native is trading above a major support zone. More than 4.8 billion XRP were previously acquired between $1.31 and $1.38, making this a critical area that could hold during the current correction. — Ali Charts (@alicharts) September 2, 2026

2/5 ripple:native is trading above a major support zone. More than 4.8 billion XRP were previously acquired between $1.31 and $1.38, making this a critical area that could hold during the current correction.

Overhead liquidity is not empty either. Ali Martinez maps the next supply shelves at $1.60, where 1.99 billion XRP were previously traded, $1.68 with 1.98 billion XRP, and $1.86 with 3.47 billion XRP. A clean break above $1.86, he argues, would open a run toward $2.19, where another 3.12 billion XRP were previously traded. In other words, $2 is not the first major barrier. It sits behind a thicker wall at $1.86, which is why the immediate battle is still about reclaiming nearby resistance before any broader upside argument can firm up.

ETF Inflows Arrived While Price Still Corrected

The fundamental backdrop is institutional. U.S. spot XRP ETFs took in roughly $105 million last week, equal to about 73.2 million XRP during the week of August 24. That represented meaningful dip-buying through a regulated investment vehicle, and it came while the token was still in correction mode.

4/5 While ETF accumulation has not fully translated into price strength yet, the technical setup remains constructive. On the hourly chart, ripple:native appears to be forming a bullish flag and is currently testing its support. An hourly close above $1.38 would confirm the… pic.twitter.com/BkNIikXHPZ — Ali Charts (@alicharts) September 2, 2026

4/5 While ETF accumulation has not fully translated into price strength yet, the technical setup remains constructive. On the hourly chart, ripple:native appears to be forming a bullish flag and is currently testing its support. An hourly close above $1.38 would confirm the… pic.twitter.com/BkNIikXHPZ

Ali noted the lag carefully. ETF demand has not yet translated into lasting price strength. That gap matters in the current market, where fund flows can remain positive while spot price continues to respect resistance, especially as Bitcoin fades around the $80,000 area and broader risk appetite remains uneven. For XRP, that means the presence of ETF buying is supportive, but not a substitute for a confirmed technical recovery.

The Hourly Flag Puts $1.38 in Focus

The immediate technical trigger is narrower than the $2 headline. On the hourly chart, XRP appears to be forming a bullish flag and testing its support. Ali’s confirmation level is an hourly close above $1.38. That move would validate the flag and put $2 back on the table.

Until that close occurs, the market is still defending the base rather than attacking the upper end of the range. A drop below $1.31 would weaken the recovery case and push the $2 discussion further out.

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